Not every market cycle is the same, but there are patterns worth noting.
Based on this theory, analyst Michael van de Poppe has predicted a repeat of the realignment among the top capitalizations before the corona crisis. Essentially, these cycles are usually defined by rotational flows into alternative assets.
To put this into context, the projection is based on the 2019 cycle, when the ETH/BTC ratio hit a low of 0.02, only to launch a rally of over 300% in early Q4 2021.
The question is of course: can Ethereum do that too? [ETH] pick up a repeat?
Source: TradingView (ETH/BTC)
Looking at the technical aspectsthe ratio is recovering from the same 0.02 floor.
As the chart shows, the ratio has experienced a vertical expansion since the second quarter of 2025, with an increase of 75%. This closely matches Ethereum’s 80% rally to $3.4k, compared to Bitcoin’s. [BTC] 15% gain over the same period.
In short, ETH’s 2025 weakness versus BTC stemmed from a 38% drop in the ETH/BTC ratio during the first quarter before bouncing back. But does this indicate a confirmed bottom? If so, we could be looking at the beginning of an outbreak.
Ethereum’s L1s take center stage
Of course, expecting a pre-COVID style rally may be a bit far-fetched.
The logic is simple: since the COVID-19 rally, the market has evolved significantly, putting BTC at the center of both spot and speculative capital flows, with its market cap reaching a record $2.5 trillion in early Q4 2025.
That said, Ethereum appears to be finding its way and showing strength on key metrics. For example, Ondo Finance now represents 11% of ETH’s RWA TVL, while Ethereum’s TPS recently hit a record high of 58k.
Source: Growthpie.com
Taken together, this strength shows that the 2019-style run has not faded.
Instead, Ethereum’s performance is clearly overtaking Bitcoin’s (BTC.D) dominance. ETH for example market share is up more than 60% from a low of 8% in Q2 2025, further strengthening this thesis.
The main difference? ETH’s dominance is greater fundamental driven.
In the current macro context, this gives Ethereum a clear lead over Bitcoin. As regulations take shape, L1s are positioned to lead the momentum, with the 75% ETH/BTC rebound serving as an early signal of this trend.
Final thoughts
- Ethereum’s market share has rebounded strongly, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising 75% from its low point in Q2 2025, supported by strong developer activity.
- L1s are positioned to lead the market momentum, and ETH’s dominance signals a potential pre-COVID style breakthrough as regulations clarify this.