- From ‘pro-crypto’ to ‘no crypto’, Trump’s shift has thrown Bitcoin into the fire.
- Now it’s a battle between caution and conviction.
Bitcoin[BTC] has started 2025 with a mix of volatility and resilience. Through two clashes with the Fed, a CPI report, two memecoin launches, Trump’s return, and a bold SEC announcement, BTC remains steady above $100,000 – a true display of its strength.
Yet the future is far from certain. Trump’s shift from his “pro-crypto” stance has left crypto sidelined in his latest executive orders, leaving BTC in a tug-of-war.
Now investors face a crucial choice: play it safe with “caution” or double down on “conviction”?
Which side will dominate?
In crypto, every action provokes a reaction. The TRUMP memecoin is down 44% at the time of writing – and that’s no coincidence. The market is reacting to Trump’s silence on crypto in the 42nd executive branch orders he signed on his first day at work.
Bitcoin cannot escape this shift. Instead of a “Trump pump” sending BTC past $110,000, there is momentum delayed. Now investors are playing it one of two ways: waiting for the perfect dip to jump in, or HODLing through the ups and downs, confident that a rally is coming.
Bitcoin’s 3.56% jump after the SEC’s first ‘pro-crypto’ move shows that conviction is still strong. But how long will it last? With the volatility of the market and Trump’s lack of action on crypto, uncertainty is creeping in and HODLers are starting to have doubts about the long term.
Source: BGeometrics
The supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has fallen to a three-year low, from 16.3 million to 14.5 million. This is a sharp decline of 11% since last year’s election. These investors have cashed in solid profits, with returns of up to 50%.
This is worrying because while short-term holders seek quick profits, long-term holders keep Bitcoin stable. If they start to lose confidence, the risk of a Bitcoin crash becomes very real.
The market could face a major shakeup if the newly elected government fails to deliver on its promises. This could tip the scale from ‘conviction’ to ‘caution’.
Bitcoin’s search for a catalyst
As LTHs lose confidence, the market needs a new catalyst to absorb the increasing liquidity.
Despite waning Trump sentiment, BTC ETFs are seeing billions in inflows. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues its buying spree.
Source: Farside Investors
Institutional capital is keeping BTC stable above $100,000 and holding on conviction, while retail investors are fueling the momentum, driven by FOMO.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2025–2026
But time is running out. The crypto market is still betting on Trump’s promises, and with the FOMC meeting just a week away, the… stake are high.
If no action is taken, the high volatility could cause BTC to fall below $100,000.