A key long-term technical signal is still bullish as Bitcoin approaches a key point on the higher time frame charts. According to CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTCUSD has maintained support and has yet to show an active sell signal even with recent market dynamics that have led to this The question is whether the cycle has turned bearish. His graph highlighted an interesting development within the one-month time frame, where the structure has not yet been transferred a confirmed sale.
Monthly SuperTrend still in buying mode
In his post on X, Severino concentrated the Bitcoin BTCUSD 1M chart and noted that the SuperTrend indicator has maintained support and maintained its active buy signal. The monthly time frame is particularly important because it filters out short-term noise and provides a clear picture of the broader cycle.
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The attached chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, while the SuperTrend level is just above $66,400. However, the indicator is still printing green on the monthly time frame, meaning the macro trend has not turned bearish. A monthly close below the SuperTrend line has always confirmed a sell signal, and that did not happen.
The visual structure in the chart also shows how previous bear markets have been characterized by a clear transition from green to red on the SuperTrend. At this time, that transition has not yet taken place. Instead, Bitcoin price is consolidating around the SuperTrend support.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TonySeverinoCMT On X
Is the bottom close or is more patience needed?
Severino added an important caveat. According to him, almost all bear markets initially last for about three months before eventually turning into a sell signal. This observation indicates that holding support does not automatically negate bearish risk. While the analyst acknowledged that bear markets can stall at support before failing, he noted that the bottom after such behavior is usually close.
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Bitcoin ended February up 14.8% below the monthly openingbut it has managed to stay above the SuperTrend. That said, a confirmed monthly breakdown below the SuperTrend would change the outlook significantly. Until that happens, the indicator shows that Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure.
Severino later shared another message discuss a separate analysis based on the quarterly Ichimoku indicator. In that analysis, he stated that historical evidence and data suggest that Bitcoin could fall another 38% to 66% from current levels. A drop of that magnitude would imply a Bitcoin bear market bottom somewhere between $40,000 and $25,000.
Severino followed inside another post with the comment: “Selling, Says the SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,000, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The monthly structure is not yet completely broken, but the warnings indicate that the cryptocurrency may not yet be out of danger.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com