Bitcoin [BTC] has been hovering around the $70,000 level since March 10. Despite the macroeconomic market uncertainties, Bitcoin’s steady performance has been encouraging. There was some resilience, even if the longer-term trend remained bearish.
One reason was that selling pressure from long-term owners decreased. The long-term sell-side risk ratio of holders has fallen to an October 2025 low, indicating that LTHs have equal measures of profit and loss realization.
Although selling pressure from long-term holders subsided, longer-term Bitcoin momentum remained bearish. The current rebound could be heading towards $80,000, but investors should not be surprised by it.
On-chain ‘stress test’ phase for Bitcoin
In a message at CryptoQuant InsightsAn analyst pointed out the variety of conditions that must be met to confirm a market bottom. Historically, these signals have been accompanied by a “max pain” period for long-term holders. They usually marked the final capitulation before intense long-term accumulation could start pushing prices higher.
Metrics to watch included realized price for the 6- to 12-month holder cohort and the MVRV ratio.
The Realized Price-UTXO age band metric reveals the average cost basis of different groups of buyers based on how long they have held Bitcoin.
The analyst pointed out that historically, realized price ranges should flatten their curve. In other words, price needs a long consolidation phase for the average cost base to decline.
The bandwidth of 6 to 12 months emphasized the overhead of the large offering. As a result, current Bitcoin resilience is unlikely to develop into a full recovery.
Another factor was the MVRV ratio at 1.29 at the time of writing. Historically, these values were a DCA zone for smart money, but did not mark the worst period of the bear cycle.
MVRV values lower than 1 were required to signal capitulation and maximum pain. We have yet to reach this point of maximum desperation.
The Two Paths to a Bitcoin Bottom
Interestingly, the analyst also laid out the two paths to a Bitcoin market bottom for this cycle. It could take the form of a black swan event. Alternatively, institutional capital flow could keep Bitcoin suspended between $60,000 and $80,000 for a “boring” year, exhausting investor patience.
The MVRV price bands appear to follow previous cycle trends. It was below the standard deviation of 0.5 (dotted blue) at 1.41, but had yet to reach the cycle bottom depth that the -1SD represented.
To achieve this, MVRV values of 0.909 or lower are required. Both the December 2018 and November 2022 cycle bottoms fell below the price range lows before recovering.
If the same scenario happens again, Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 for a few weeks to inflict as much pain as possible on long-term investors before recovering.
Final summary
- Bitcoin showed some strength by staying above $70,000 while global market indices posted losses.
- The current rebound fell within a broader bearish regime. Investors should not yet bet on a long-term recovery.