Dogecoin traders have heard the call of “five cents” before. It’s the kind of number that sounds like bait until price action starts acting like it might actually happen.
On Friday, DOGE changed hands around $0.140, up slightly on the day, while Bitcoin hovered around $92,300. That’s the backdrop for a new warning from YouTube analyst VisionPulsed, who told viewers that his “base case” is for Dogecoin to return to the $0.05-$0.06 zone in the next 12 months – a period that drags the target straight into 2026.
Will Dogecoin crash to $0.05 in 2026?
In the video posted on December 11 and titled “WHY IS DOGECOIN CRASHING!? BITCOIN RALLY COMING OF BULL TRAP FOR 5 CENT DOGE in 2026!?”, the essence of his argument is quite simple: if bitcoin is in a bear regime, DOGE doesn’t need any extra reason to bleed.
“The base case here is that Bitcoin has entered a bear market,” he said, pointing to a cluster of indicators he is looking at, including an 8-day moving average near $102,000 and the Gaussian Channel. As long as BTC remains below these levels – he cited roughly $103,000 as a line in the sand – he thinks the path of least resistance for Dogecoin will be heading towards five cents.
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And he didn’t exactly sell it as a one-way ticket. There’s a lot of talk about ‘chop zone’ in the video – his term for the period when traders are whipped as they try to make long jumps and short dips. “The peanut gallery,” he called it.
His chart-based reasoning relies on a familiar pattern from 2022: Even as bitcoin managed a relief rally, DOGE still printed lower lows at certain points. “There is no guarantee that Dogecoin will have a relief rally. As you can see, Dogecoin did indeed have a relief rally in 2022 before the last pump with Bitcoin, […] but you can also see that Bitcoin made higher lows throughout the spring, while Dogecoin made lower lows,” he said.
According to him, one of those “unfinished” spots is closer to $0.10 at first – and then the uglier number comes back into play depending on how Bitcoin behaves.
That order is important because traders get into trouble exactly there. If bitcoin bounces, DOGE can bounce too. Or maybe not. VisionPulsed continued to insist that there are “many indicators” pointing to a BTC relief rally being possible, but that Dogecoin provides “no guarantees” – a point it tried to underscore by comparing the current tape to MicroStrategy’s tendency to plateau for weeks before a sharp move.
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Then there’s his timing framework, which is more narrative than math but still widely used in crypto circles: the idea that markets often produce a final meaningful rally about 140 to 150 days after a big top — and that price doesn’t revisit those levels for a long time. He cited examples from previous cycles (2014, 2018, 2019, 2022) to argue that once bitcoin falls into that “channel” regime, it will stay there until the broader downtrend has done its work.
So what does $0.05 actually mean from here? From about $0.14, this is a drop of about 64%. That’s violent, but not exactly exotic in DOGE’s history – and that’s why the call is reaching some traders, even if they hate to hear it.
The big escape hatch, according to VisionPulsed, is a bitcoin breakout: If BTC hits a new all-time high in February, he claims the bearish “base case” becomes invalid and DOGE can do what DOGE does when the market takes risks. Until then, he considered $0.05-$0.06 to be the boring, unforgiving probability-weighted outcome.
“So the base case for the next twelve months is that Doge will most likely settle into this five to six cent range at some point unless Bitcoin moves up and hits a new all-time high before February. If Bitcoin hits a new all-time high in February, Doge will avoid that. [$0.05 target] and start pumping to the moon like everyone wants,” he concluded.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.14.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com