Bitwise advisor Jeff Park says Bitcoin’s next all-time high could be driven not just by spot ETF flows, but by a burgeoning options market around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. Speaking at the Bitcoin Conference 2026 in Las Vegas on Monday, Park argued that IBIT options are beginning to reshape the structure of Bitcoin volatility and could become the catalyst for the asset’s next big move higher.
Why BlackRock’s Bitcoin Options Could Be Crucial
Park said the market has reached a notable turning point: IBIT options open interest has now overtaken Deribit open interest “for the first time in a meaningful way.” For years, Deribit has served as the dominant venue for Bitcoin options, with traders often using the D-Vol index as a proxy for implied market volatility. Park argued that this approach is becoming increasingly incomplete.
“For a long time, people looked to Deribit’s D-Vol to calculate implied volatility, but D-Vol is flawed,” Park said. “D-Vol only uses Deribit options. The reality is that there are many offshore exchanges, there are now IBIT options, and we actually need more intelligent ways to quantify the parameterization of implied volatility.”
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That shift matters because the US-listed IBIT options market appears to price Bitcoin risk differently than offshore locations. Park pointed to BVIV US, which tracks implied volatility on IBIT, and BVIV, an aggregated correlation-implied volatility measure for offshore exchanges. According to him, the spread between the two is now around five points, with IBIT volatility trading higher than Deribit and other volatility on the offshore exchanges.
According to Park, the premium may reflect a different type of buyer entering the Bitcoin options market. Unlike much of the offshore options complex, IBIT options can have a term of more than two years, giving investors access to longer-term upside exposure through a regulated US product. That duration could raise demand from retail investors looking for leveraged participation in a potential Bitcoin rally without the same restrictions typically associated with offshore locations.
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“Where does that five-point spread come from? I suspect there is a lot of retail demand for upside participation with a longer term than what is usually promised on Deribit, because IBIT options are valid for two years or more,” Park said. “And so my bold prediction is that we will see a big Bitcoin surge.”
Park’s dissertation focuses on the interaction between options positioning and Bitcoin’s scarcity. If IBIT options continue to gain market share, and if upward demand forces dealers or other market participants to hedge dynamically, the resulting gamma effects could add momentum to a rising market. Under that setup, options activity would not simply reflect bullish sentiment; it might help strengthen it.
“My prediction is that it will be led by IBIT options and the reflexive nature in which the range that is potentially created within something like Bitcoin due to its scarcity can really guide the next step in a meaningful way,” Park said.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $75,937.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com