Polymarket suffered one of the biggest trading shocks of the World Cup after a mystery account turned about $4 million into a profit of about $9 million betting on Spain.
Sports betting on Polymarket
The trade paid off after Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw, turning what seemed like a unlikely outcome into a big win on the prediction market.
The result was surprising on the field before it became a crypto market story. Cape Verde played its first World Cup, while Spain entered the match as reigning European champions and one of the favorites to win the tournament. Instead, Cape Verde defended for 90 minutes and earned a historic point, with goalkeeper Vozinha becoming one of the standouts of the match.
That unrest caused a huge turnaround at Polymarket. According to Lookonchain, the winning account, known as ‘fishalive’, reportedly placed two big bets: one on Spain not to win and another on Cape Verde to stay within 2.5 goals. When the match ended goalless, both positions paid off. The wallet cleared about $4.7 million in the Spanish market and $8.5 million in the spread market, leaving about $9 million in profits in one day.
Another trader loses $1 million on a bet on Spain
At the same time, the result punished traders who treated Spain as almost certain. Another Polymarket user, “betoor619,” lost almost $1 million after backing a Spain win when the market priced the team at implied odds of around 92%.
This is important because Polymarket combines sports betting behavior with onchain transparency. Traders may operate under pseudonyms, but their positions and payouts are publicly visible. Because of this setup, ‘fishalive’ is now likely to catch the attention of traders trying to understand whether the gains came from sharp analysis, extreme risk-taking or simply one of the biggest shocks of the World Cup.
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