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The current pullback has not affected Bernstein’s Bitcoin[BTC] projection to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
In a recent note to clients, the research and brokerage firm’s analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the current decline was BTC’s “weakest” bear case yet.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history”
Unlike previous bear markets, which were driven by blowouts (the 2022 FTX implosion), hidden debt burdens and other systemic risks, the 2026 market doesn’t rhyme, the analysts said.
Chhugani blamed the current weakness on a “manufactured crisis of confidence” caused by followers of the four-year cycle. The analysts wrote sarcastically:
“When all the stars align, the Bitcoin community is producing a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing has been blown up, no skeletons will unravel. The media is back to writing an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.”
From the cycle peak of $126,000 in October, Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in early February, marking a 52% decline. At the time of writing, the light had recovered to $69,000.
The past five BTC bear markets since 2011 have averaged an 80% decline, with the least being 72%. That would mean a decline of 52% in 2026, indeed the ‘weakest’.
However, if the price were to match past trends, it would add additional downside risk to $35.2K. Put another way, the current level was at the midpoint of a typical bear market decline.
Bernstein downplays quantum fears
On the fear of quantum computers, one of the key enablers cited by bear analysts, Bernstein said it was not an immediate threat.
The analysts acknowledged that quantum risk is a long-term threat, adding that all critical digital systems face similar risks and will move to quantum-resistant upgrades together. This position was similar to that of Grayscale and Strategy Michael Saylor.
Is a long-term decline in BTC still likely?
Yet Bitcoin was not out of the woods yet. According to Glass junctionAt today’s $70,000, the unrealized loss translates to 16% of market cap, reflecting an early bear market structure for the 2022 cycle.
The loss reached 24% as BTC fell to $60,000, with Glassnode adding:
“This places the market in an intense bear regime, although still below the extreme capitulation phases of over 50%, indicating that a capitulation process is underway.”
Source: Glassnode
Bitfinex analysts, on the other hand projected a sideways structure for BTC within the $60K and $74K price ranges for a while.
“The market is likely to consolidate here ($60,000-$74,000) as losses are digested and positioning resets, pending clearer signals on whether this range becomes a base for recovery or a pause for further downturn.”
Source: Bitfinex
Final thoughts
- Bernstein analysts believe BTC will still hit a new all-time high of $150,000 in 2026, calling the $60,000 drop the “weakest” bear market.
- However, Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts remained cautious, warning that further downside risks could not be overruled.