According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle still exists, but the driving force behind that rhythm has changed. He told listeners on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the calendar timing of halvings is no longer the most important factor. Instead, the timing of the elections, the moves of the central bank and where money flows are now more important.
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Shift from halving to politics and liquidity
Thielen marked that Bitcoin’s major peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, and he believes these peaks align better with election cycles and political uncertainty than the timing of the halvings.
He said there are additional market concerns about whether the incumbent president’s party will retain control of Congress. He said this could shape policy and investor choices, and he mentioned US President Donald Trump when discussing current political opportunities. The message was clear: politics changes expectations, and expectations influence prices.
The four-year cycle is still intact, but is determined by midterm elections and not by the halving.@markus10x pic.twitter.com/5td8bLgb20
— The Wolf of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2025
Liquidity and institutional prudence
The recent Fed rate cut did not lead to the usual broad rally in risky assets. Institutional investors, who now play a larger role in the crypto markets, are acting more cautiously as policy signals remain mixed and liquidity appears tighter.
Capital flow to Bitcoin have slowed compared to last year, Thielen said, removing some of the buying pressure that previously helped drive up prices. Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, made a similar point in October, saying that global liquidity, not an automatic four-year clock, has always driven the major moves in cryptocurrency. According to Hayes, halvings can sometimes coincide with rallies, but they are often coincidental.
Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in thin Sunday trading, signaling vulnerable demand when volumes are low. Ether showed relative strength, while the major altcoins lagged behind. Traders position themselves ahead of a busy week with American figures and events at central banks, where signals that influence liquidity and risk appetite become more important. With institutional agencies keeping a close eye on macro data, momentum is likely to depend on flows rather than calendar dates.
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What this means for investors
The clearest conclusion is simple. The four-year pattern can still help set expectations, but it should not be considered the rule. Halvings affect supply and the mining economy, and matter to some market players, but in a market shaped by big funds and ETFs, cash and credit terms are the real fuel.
When liquidity eases, prices may rise. If things tighten, the rallies could end. That lesson is central to the views of both Thielen and Hayes.
Policy and liquidity are now central to Bitcoin’s cycles. Reports indicate that the pattern has shifted from a purely mechanical scheme to one influenced by broader monetary conditions and political timelines. Market participants appear to respond to economic news and central bank signals in addition to the block reward scheme.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView