Markets are increasingly pricing ‘peace’ as a key macro driver of the current cycle.
It is striking that the current design seems to support this story. According to The Kobeissi Letter, a new agreement may now be on the table.
A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran could take place as soon as Thursday, April 16, after previous failed attempts to reach an agreement.
The market reaction was remarkable. Following the news, Bitcoin [BTC] ended the day up 5.23%, reaching $74,911.
This reinforces the idea that investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments, with macro news remaining a key driver of price action.
And the impact didn’t stop there.
According to CoinGlass, total liquidations have now surpassed $530 million, with almost 82% of that coming from short positions.
Notably, Bitcoin followed a similar liquidity-driven structure, with $219 million marking the largest short squeeze in a week. However, zooming out is not an isolated move.
On April 7, BTC showed a similar situation, rising 4.48% to $73,000, while over $200 million in short liquidations occurred. However, momentum stalled at resistance around $75k.
That shift ultimately reversed positioning, leading to $75 million in long liquidations on April 12 when the market reversed.
The question now, of course, is whether Bitcoin is preparing to repeat the same playbook again or whether this cycle is starting to diverge from previous liquidity patterns. According to AMBCrypto, a key difference in this cycle may be its changing structure.
Sentiment shift signals a break in Bitcoin’s resistance pattern
The more the market aligns with the environment, the more ‘sentiment’ emerges as an important signal.
Nothing illustrates this better than the past few days. Investor sentiment has closely followed the daily swings in geopolitical headlines, especially around the US-Iran situation, with risk appetite shifting in near real-time with each development.
Bitcoin, in turn, is in the middle of this flow.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index clearly highlights this dynamic. Since the conflict between Iran and the US, the index has encountered resistance twice and is falling in line with BTC’s own rejection zone around $75,000.
The first example occurred on March 16, when the index fell 8 points in a week. A similar setup emerged on April 7, when the index reached 47, followed shortly after by a 5-point dip.
However, this time the expected sequel did not fully materialize.
As the chart shows, the index is now just 5 points away from entering the ‘greed’ zone, which historically aligns with stronger accumulation phases.
This shift in sentiment indicates that recent developments between the US and Iran have led to a clear shift in risk, which has been reflected in market sentiment, marking a key difference from previous cycles.
From a technical perspective, this indicates a strong Bitcoin setup around the $75k level.
If sentiment holds in the wake of the Iran-US deal, BTC’s current uptrend could break from previous rejection patterns in this resistance zone, making it an important metric to watch going forward.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s recent high is a liquidity-driven move that aligns with recurring “short squeeze into resistance” structures around the $75,000 zone.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is approaching ‘greed’, indicating that risk sentiment related to the Iran-US deal is improving.