Bitcoin is once again at the center of a fierce debate. Although many market participants have interpreted the recent weakness as the beginning of a new bear marketcrypto trader @CryptoFergani argues the opposite. According to his assessment, the market has already passed the bearish phase, and current conditions indicate that another phase of the cycle absolutely.
Bitcoin’s bear phase may already be behind it
To understand his argument, it’s important to look beyond the daily price fluctuations and focus on the larger structure of the market. @CryptoFergani’s graph presents Bitcoin is moving within a long-term rising channel which has guided the price action over multiple cycles. Historically, the lower boundaries of this channel functioned as accumulation zones, while the upper boundaries marked periods of optimism and cycle peaks.
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The chart highlights several occasions when Bitcoin touched the lower parts of the channel before a substantial recovery began. In previous cycles, those moments coincided with widespread pessimism, before being followed by strong progress. The current position on the chart places Bitcoin near a comparable region, leading the analyst to conclude that the market is coming out of a longer correction period rather than entering another bear market.
Market psychology is central to this dissertation. Many investors who follow the traditional four-year cycle have recently reduced their exposure or exited their positions. When there are fewer potential sellers, the downward pressure becomes weaker and even a small increase in demand can significantly affect the price.
This is why the analyst interprets the recent weakness as exhaustion and not collapse, suggesting the market is reset prior to a new expansion phase.
The next chapter of Bitcoin
If the bear market is indeed over, the next question becomes where Bitcoin is currently in the cycle. The answer is, according to the analyst’s framework somewhere between accumulation and acceleration.
Several factors support this view. As institutional participation in digital assets continues to grow, regulatory discussions in the United States are becoming increasingly important expectations of future economic stimulus measures remain part of the broader perspective. @CryptoFergani also highlights shifts in the business cycle, Movements of the US dollarFederal Reserve policy changes and commodity trends as part of a bigger picture that could favor risky assets.
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At the same time, Bitcoin’s short-term performance remains mixed. It is currently trading around $67,176, after dropping 4.3% in 24 hours. From @CryptoFergani’s perspective, these pullbacks are not a new bear market turbulence within a broader transition. His long-term projection still expects a sharp upward move after the current consolidation, with a potential increase from $60,000-$80,000 to $320,000-$340,000 later in the cycle, provided Bitcoin stays within its long-term rising channel.
Whether that prediction ultimately comes true remains to be seen. However, the central message is clear: While much of the market is focused on recent declines, some analysts think Bitcoin is no longer fighting a bear market not at all. Instead, it can lay the foundation for the next major phase of the cycle.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com