Key Takeaways
What’s Next for Bitcoin’s Price?
According to one analyst, there would likely be a wider price range until OGs and LTH finish offloading.
How is the market positioning itself in the short term?
Options flows show a mild bullish trend through November, but traders remain cautious heading into the end of the year.
Bitcoin [BTC] has become boring lately. As a perceived risk asset, you could easily predict the next direction by monitoring US stocks and overall liquidity.
But the crypto assets have seen random disruption from the Nasdaq Composite and even gold. This has made it more difficult to measure.
In October, for example, gold had its moment; now Nasdaq has followed suit, but BTC continued to underperform, noted Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.
Source: CryptoQuant
While the Nasdaq and gold made new highs last month, BTC was in a pullback, losing more than $16,000 from $126,000 to $110,000.
The results? BTC saw it first red “Uptober” since 2028. Sentiment has soured, unnerving a section of CT (Crypto Twitter) who feared we could enter the cyclical ‘bear phase’.
‘IPO moment’ or consolidation phase?
Others, however, have made an opposite bet: a consolidation rather than a bear phase in 2026.
According to Jordi Visser, analyst at 22V Research, BTC may be in its “IPO moment,” quote the OG distribution and drawing parallels with traditional initial public offerings (IPOs).
Visser noted:
“When a company goes public and early investors start selling their positions, the stock often consolidates, even during broader market rallies.”
The BTC OGs, who have owned the asset for several years, and other LTHs (long-term holders) are jumping into the rally.
In fact, LTHs have been offloading throughout the second half of the year, dumping 383,000 BTC (about $42 billion) in October alone. surpassing ETF question.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, Visser said the distribution does not mean BTC is dying. Instead, it is a sign of maturity as government bonds and ETFs step in to provide exit liquidity to early investors, similar to IPOs.
As a result, BTC could enter a consolidation phase similar to that of Facebook and Google following their IPOs. He added:
“IPO distribution periods typically last 6-18 months. We are probably several months into this process, but probably not done yet.”
After the consolidation after the IPO, technology shares recovered, Visser emphasizes. His view was echoed by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, calling the projection of an “accurate state of the BTC market.”
Options flows tilt bullish into November
That said, Options flow underlined optimistic expectations until the end of November, but with a more cautious positioning towards the end of the year.
Notably, there were heavier call volumes (green bars) around $112,000-$120,000, indicating bullish tendencies in the near term (end of November).
Source: Arkham
However, in December there was a slight increase in put activity around $105,000, indicating hedging or a cautious tone towards the end of the year.