Bitcoins [BTC] The pace has slowed and the market suddenly feels calmer than it has in months.
Big buyers aren’t adding much, long-term holders (LTH) aren’t selling heavily, and the price has fallen below key levels. We’re in a tight spot, and we could go sideways next.
Or… is this the start of something bigger?
The first sign of weakness
Bitcoin’s uptrend is losing momentum, and here is the first sign: the slowdown in the growth of the dolphin balance (wallets with between 100 and 1,000 BTC).
According to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, at their peak, these addresses added as much as 965,000 BTC year after year. At the time of writing, that growth has dropped to 694,000 BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant
This cohort includes ETFs and publicly traded companies, meaning some of the most influential buyers in the market have ceased operations. When the group that fueled the rally stops accumulating, it will become harder for Bitcoin to climb higher.
For now, the strongest buyers are taking a step back.
This slowdown comes at a time when corporate government bonds are holding Bitcoin are under visible pressure.
The combined market cap of major BTC companies like MSTR, Metaplanet, XXI and others has fallen sharply, from about $152 billion in mid-July to just $73.5 billion.
Source:
Nevertheless, these companies keep their Bitcoin positions stable even when the market tests them.
OG sellers are taking a step back
Building on that delay, the OG cohort have also withdrawn on their sales. The 90-day daily average of issued UTXOs of coins older than five years has fallen from approximately 2,350 BTC to approximately 1,000 BTC.
Source:
These coins were originally purchased for around $30,000, and when they move it is usually to sell. Now that their activity has declined, one of the biggest sources of selling pressure in the market is starting to subside.
More importantly, the STXO peaks of each cycle from this group become smaller, making LTHs less reactive as the cycle ages.
At a crossroads
With the sale of pressure cooling, the focus is now on where Bitcoin is going… and the maps don’t offer much comfort.
BTC has already fallen below the $89,800 level, a key zone that many traders were watching closely.
According to Alphractal’s Joao Wedson, the loss of this support increases the likelihood of a broader sideways phase, especially since Bitcoin also failed to hold key levels on the chain. The critical limit is now $86,500.
If BTC breaks below, Wedson warns that the next stop could be $80,500. This move would mark a new local low, but could also mean a cleaner long for patient traders.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin is drifting into volatility, and its next move depends on whether $86,500 remains.
- Corporate bonds sitting on $73.5 billion of underwater BTC could become the wild card of the cycle.