Journalist
Posted:
This quarter, institutional demand for digital assets took a hit.
That’s surprising, considering 2025 has been huge for mainstream adoption. From ETF launches, strategic partnerships to stablecoin moves, the year has truly boosted crypto’s institutional credibility.
While altcoins rode that wave, Bitcoin stayed [BTC] was left behind. To put this in perspective, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of $300 million in December so far, while Solana [SOL] Raised $741 million.
Source: Glassnode
And yet, if you look at the chart, this could be the start of a bigger trend.
Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin has returned to the average cost basis of US spot ETFs, which hovers around $85,000. Simply put, ETF BTC HODLers are in a break-even zone, making them an important cohort to watch.
From a technical point of view, this represents significant support at $85,000. How Bitcoin behaves in this area will indicate whether the bears take control or whether the bulls defend to keep the FOMO alive, potentially setting another stage higher.
Bitcoin Support Zone Is Testing the Market’s Belief
US spot demand continues to act as a major catalyst for Bitcoin.
Conviction hasn’t really returned on the ETF side, leaving ETF Bitcoin holders at risk of being sold off as BTC approaches their cost basis. At the same time Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) shows that FOMO is still muted.
As the chart shows, BTC’s CPI is falling further into the red, indicating US investors are being cautious about buying the dip. It is a clear signal that the market is still in a bear phase and sentiment remains fragile.
Source: CoinGlass
Given this context, it is still premature to call a solid bottom at $85,000.
Data in the chain shows that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are still taking profits, while short-term holders (STHs) are capitulating as BTC trades well below the $126,000 peak, forcing them to continue realizing losses.
In short, Bitcoin is still supply heavy. With all this at stake, the $85,000 level remains vulnerable, and with ETF holders at risk of going underwater, a deeper correction cannot be ruled out.
Final thoughts
- Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin hovering around $85,000, the average cost basis of US spot ETFs, putting ETF holders in an important breakeven zone.
- Weak US demand and capitulation by long- and short-term holders are putting the level at risk, with ETF holders potentially selling if they are underwater.