Bitcoin [BTC] has continued to trade within a range-bound region, with the price failing to make a decisive move above the USD 68,009 level in recent sessions.
While certain indicators and on-chain metrics have shown muted activity, the broader market structure suggests Bitcoin could face renewed pressure that could push it back toward the bottom of its established range.
The market bias remains bearish
One of the key signals reinforcing this structural outlook is the buying/selling pressure delta.
As the name suggests, the Delta measures whether buyers or sellers dominate market activity. Currently, the Sell Delta remains greater than the Buy Delta, indicating continued selling pressure.
A negative or red Sell Delta reflects periods when selling volume exceeds buying volume, typically suppressing price action.
Until the Delta moves towards the neutral (zero) level or moves positively towards the green zone, the downward pressure is likely to continue.
Source: Alpharactal
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, recently noted that even if Bitcoin experiences a near-term recovery, the lack of confirmation of the Buy Delta would weaken the sustainability of such a move.
“Until then, the bears still maintain control of the price, and if this pressure continues, the price is likely to fall further in the coming months. Even if temporary rallies occur at 72k, 74k or 75k.”
More obstacles ahead
In the short term, Bitcoin will face additional resistance.
At the time of writing, Alphractal liquidation data indicates a significant liquidation cluster around the $69,000 zone.
Liquidation charts identify price levels where a concentration of leveraged positions could be forcefully closed, often increasing volatility.
With Bitcoin trading around $68,085, a dense liquidation cluster above the current price level could act as a short-term selling barrier. When the price approaches such zones, volatility often increases as positions expire.
Source: Alpharactal
Data from CoinGlass also shows weakening momentum in the derivatives markets.
At the time of writing, futures trading volume was down 48% to $31.97 billion, while options volume was down even further, 59% to around $992 million.
A sharp drop in volume during a modest price increase generally indicates that the rally lacks strong conviction and could struggle to maintain upward momentum.
If the price rises to the liquidation cluster of $69,000, the likelihood of a sharp rejection increases. Such a move could trigger a surge in volume as leveraged positions are liquidated, potentially increasing downward pressure.
For now, a clear price barrier continues to limit Bitcoin’s short-term upside, at least until sentiment definitively shifts in favor of buyers.
Bitcoin rebalancing is underway
Despite the lack of a decisive breakout, on-chain data points to a gradual expansion of Bitcoin’s ownership base.
In practical terms, this reflects a continuous reallocation of supply across portfolio categories. In concrete terms, the supply of large addresses appears to be decreasing, while smaller addresses are increasing their share.
This observation comes from the Network Distribution Factors (NFD), which track supply concentration among major operators, specifically the top 0.01% of addresses.
Source: Alpharactal
Recent data shows a continued decline in this segment’s share, indicating distribution from larger entities to smaller portfolios.
Such rebalancing phases often occur after extended bull cycles, when large holders gradually reduce their exposure after significant accumulation periods.
Until this rebalancing process stabilizes, Bitcoin may continue to face moderate price pressure.
Final summary
- Bitcoin will remain under bearish pressure until clear positive signals emerge from broader market conditions.
- A major hurdle around the $69,000 level could lead to renewed selling pressure and push the price towards the bottom of the range.