Bitcoin has been trading below Grand Trend’s Forecasting support level since January 2026. Since the breakup of the trend, BTC has experienced strong bearish pressure, causing it to fall below both long-term and short-term realized prices.
Amid this expanded, weakened structure, crypto analysts have expressed greater pessimism and predicted a prolonged decline, citing realized price data.
Bitcoin continues to show cracks
According to Darkfost, BTC has held below the realized price for two months, excluding inactive supply.
The analyst noted that the realized price, after the adjustment, is approximately $72,500. These price levels now act as immediate resistance.
Looking at the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin remained below this cost basis for between six and ten months. If the historical pattern repeats, BTC could see tougher months before reclaiming and reversing $72,500.
If market prices remain below realized prices, this usually means that most buyers are making a loss. Often, an increase in the number of loss holders increases sales risk, which, if realized, results in more losses.
This is evident from the short-term realized price, which currently stands at $82.3k, according to data from Checkonchain. This implies that recent buyers are currently experiencing significant losses, increasing the cohort’s capitulation risk.
In fact, realized losses for short-term holders have stabilized above $300 million per day, with an average of 5,000 BTC sold at a loss. On March 29, the STH cohort reported a loss of $372 million, confirming the bearishness.
Historically, continued loss realization has further weakened the market, leading to prolonged price declines.
Can BTC avoid further slippages?
Bitcoin has traded in a bearish structure for almost five months and remained below the realized price for two months, reflecting strong downward pressure.
As a result, ADV/DECL has fallen below 50 to 35.78, indicating that most funds have entered a declining asset phase. This implies that sellers largely dominate the market and any attempt at upward movement failed to materialize due to a lack of support.
Additionally, the EMA line has been hovering around 25-35, indicating persistent weakness and further confirmation of the trend’s weakness. These market conditions have exposed BTC to potentially more losses on its price charts.
If the market price continues to hold the realized price while STH sells, BTC could fall to $62,000. However, the realized price on Binance is currently around $60,490, providing strong support to the market.
As long as BTC remains above this level, it will prevent further slippage and allow room for a reversal. But first BTC needs to reclaim $72,000 and flip it, then target STH’s realized price of $82,000 to see significant gains.
Final summary
- Bitcoin has held less than $72,500, the realized price that excludes inactive supply, for two months.
- BTC needs to hold above $60,490 to avoid further slippage and recover $72,500 to see significant gains.