After failing to reverse the $90,000 area, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move within its local range without clearly having a clear direction. Some market observers have suggested that flagship crypto will remain within reach until next year, when the potential moment of truth will arrive.
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Bitcoin is taking a vacation
On Christmas Eve, Bitcoin continued its sideways trajectory, trading between the $86,000-$87,000 levels throughout the day. The cryptocurrency has been hovering within the $80,000-$94,000 range since the late November correction, failing to break out of the one-month range despite previous attempts.
Notably, BTC’s price has been trading around the mid-zone of its range, moving between the $84,000-$90,000 level for almost two weeks. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin is “still in no trading zone,” arguing that if the price does not reclaim the $90,000 resistance area, the price could risk a retest of the $84,000 support.
However, if the support and resistance levels do not break, the price will continue to move within its range until the market momentum returns. Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades marked that December has been ‘all things considered a very boring month’.
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The trader too claimed that it hasn’t been BTC’s best year, despite hitting new highs this quarter. He pointed out that “this year has been terrible, especially when we look at risk-adjusted returns.”
Nevertheless, he noted that “in years like this, we’re making big strides toward distributing coins from major OG holders and getting a more evenly spread supply. Regardless of the short-term price action, that’s always good to see.”
Will BTC Breakout or Collapse in 2026?
Daan confirmed that the first quarter of 2026 will be the time when Bitcoin can “try to prove itself” and everyone will be keeping a close eye on the cryptocurrency’s performance to determine whether the cycle is over or not.
Other market watchers have suggested two possible scenarios for BTC’s performance in early 2026. Ted Cushions marked that BTC appears to be mirroring its 2021-2022 fractal, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency may eventually enter a bear market.
According to the chart, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback after peaking at the end of 2021. This was followed by a brief recovery period at the beginning of 2022 before the price continued its downward trajectory.
Based on this, the analyst predicted a rally towards $100,000 in early 2026, before the next price drop, which could target the $60,000-$70,000 area. On the contrary, Eljaboom be that BTC could repeat its performance from the beginning of the year.
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As he noted, BTC shows a multi-month bearish wedge pattern on the three-day chart, similar to the pattern that formed between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025 and led to the third quarter 3035 rally.
If history repeats itself, the cryptocurrency could retest the lower bound of the pattern in the coming weeks before breaking out of formation and possibly heading to new highs in the second quarter of 2026.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,350, down 0.5% in the daily time frame.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com