Bitcoin’s latest price action has been executed in a technical wall, and crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader believes the rejection could become more severe if a nearby support level fails. Above all, technical analysis shows that the price action looks uncomfortable almost crashed under $76,000.
Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average has become the first major rejection zone
Bitcoin reached $82,400 on May 6 before stalling at the 200-day moving average and falling back to $74,000 over the most recent weekend. Merlin’s graph analysis compares this current 2026 setup based on the daily candlestick timeframe to Bitcoin’s 2022 structure.
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Looking at the 2022 example, Bitcoin pushed the 200-day moving average around $48,000 in early April, failed to hold that level, and then continued lower until the price fell to a low of $28,000 in May. That move turned out to be about a 40% drop from the rejection area.
The current chart shows a similar technical idea, although the price levels are different. Bitcoin recently attempted to recover to $80,000 in mid-May, but the red 200-day moving average acted as a ceiling. The rejection from that zone has emphasized short-term support was around $76,000, which Merlin identified as the level to watch. If $76,000 breaks, Bitcoin could experience price action similar to 2022.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X
Losing $76,000 could accelerate the decline below $67,000
According to analysts from K33 Research, Bitcoin’s rejection of the 200-day moving average mirrors patterns seen during previous market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022.The key level for Bitcoin bulls is now $76,000. A move below $76,000 would weaken the pattern as it would erase the upper-low structure that emerged after Bitcoin’s push from the mid-$70,000s in May. “If you lose it, the movement accelerates,” the analyst said.
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If it breaks through $76,000, Merlin has a clear first negative target: the $67,000 CME gap. CME gaps arise because Bitcoin is always continuously traded on crypto exchanges, even on weekends, but CME futures pause during weekends and market closes. A gap can appear on the chart when futures reopen at a different price than where they closed, and usually this gap always acts as a price magnet.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $77,233, which means it is has not confirmed the bearish sequel that Merlin warns about. However, as long as Bitcoin continues to trade below the 200-day moving average and push against $76,000, there is a possibility that it will fall towards the CME gap of $67,000. On the other hand, a recovery of the A range of $79,000 to $80,000 this week would reduce the immediate risk of a crash to $67,000.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com