The scars of the crash in the fourth quarter of 2025 continue to test investors’ convictions.
At the height of the sell-off, the total cryptocurrency market cap wiped out more than $1 trillion, leading to a record $19 billion in liquidations. Even months later, the shock of that event continues to impact positioning.
In market environments like this, there is a strong institutional bid around Bitcoin [BTC] is often interpreted as a bullish signal. Strikingly, a declassified SEC filing shows that trading giant Jane Street leaned precisely on that playbook.
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Based on the chart above, Jane Street added 7.1 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), worth $276 million, in the fourth quarter of 2025. This brings the total holdings to 20,315,780 shares, worth $790 million.
Normally, an accumulation of this magnitude would boost retail sentiment. Some instead market parties argue that Jane Street’s purchases may be contributing to price suppression, limiting downward moves in Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, parts of this thesis seem remarkable. Despite the heavy accumulation, BTC still closed the quarter with a 24% loss even when Jane Street was ranking second largest IBIT buyer in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Fast forward to now, BlackRock continues to record net outflowwhile the latest SEC filing has further heightened concerns about manipulation.
In this environment, is the incentive to HODLing Bitcoin starting to fade?
Long-term holders of Bitcoin signal increasing distribution risk
Bitcoin’s technical structure remains bearish.
On the weekly time frame, BTC has made five consecutive lower lows, with no clear consolidation developing around the $65k zone.
In this context, it may be premature to view this level as a breakout launch pad as current bidding activity does not yet signal compelling accumulation.
In the meantime, selling pressure continues to dominate.
On-chain data shows rising long-term holder inflows into Binance, while the average LTH SOPR remains high at 1.87, indicating LTHs are experiencing increasing losses on their Bitcoin positions.
Source: CryptoQuant
Overall, Bitcoin’s current range shows a clear imbalance.
Most importantly, at a sentiment level, this highlights declining conviction among LTHs as realized losses begin to exceed HODL’s incentive for future gains.
In short, the effects of ongoing market stress are becoming evident in both price action and investor behavior.
On top of this fragile setup, FUD around Jane Street’s IBIT positioning, IBIT’s 23% correction so far in 2026and weak Bitcoin metrics all add pressure. Together, these factors put pressure on HODLing behavior.
As a result, Bitcoin is far from showing clear signs of a bottom.
Final summary
- Despite Jane Street’s massive IBIT accumulation, Bitcoin remains under pressure, with LTHs suffering losses and retail sentiment subdued.
- BTC’s weekly lower lows, rising LTH inflows to exchanges, and ongoing FUD indicate that HODLing conviction is waning, keeping pressure on the $65,000 support.