Bitcoin tests a key ask zone after breaking up from a symmetrical triangle, putting the market at a crucial turning point. While buyers could try to defend this support and trigger a recovery, failure to hold it could open the door to more downside in the short term.
Breakdown of the bearish triangle sends Bitcoin into a key liquidity zone
Minga marked that the market has experienced a bearish breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, and that price is trending towards the 50% wick fill area of the previous weekly candle, an area of significant, untested liquidity and a long limit order that was previously front-run. Although he expects this long position to fill, the risk on this trade is minimal at 0.25%, essentially serving as a risk-free hedge against his existing short position.
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Minga maintains one optimistic bias for the rest of the month, but he emphasizes that this outlook needs technical confirmation, especially a recovery from the $60,700 level. The loss of this key support is likely to lead to further downside, bringing the $58,900 level into focus. Given that the daily trend is showing clear signs of exhaustion, Minga sees the $60,700–$58,900 range as a high probability zone for a potential r.ecorie.
However, the analyst cautions that exhaustion does not automatically guarantee a turnaround. Market conditions can often result in a slow, grinding decline as the assets on either side scramble for liquidity, leading to very choppy price movements. This behavior has historically been common at major market turning points.
Considering that the market potentially approaching a macro bottom, the possibility of a prolonged, choppy decline cannot be ignored. Should this scenario materialize and current support zones fail to hold, Minga identifies the $54,500-$49,000 region as the next critical downside target.
$60,800 remains BTC’s main battleground
According to analyst @wangtuai888, whose track record includes eight consecutive accurate trend forecasts, the market is currently at a defining moment. As long as the USD 60,800 support holds, it will remain active in an uptrend. However, should the price break and close a 1-hour solid candle below $60,800, marking a critical Point of Control (POC) and a vacuum zone, the analyst expects a sharp, immediate decline.
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If the support at $60,800 holds, @wangtuai888 expects an initial recovery towards $62,400 to break the previous minor high and change the local market structure. This would be followed by a pullback to the POC of $61,800, which the analyst believes is a favorable entry point for long positions.
The strategy then turns towards a tactical shorting opportunity. The analyst plans to initiate a short position near the 63,000 level, noting that even if a stop-loss is triggered, the high reward-to-risk ratio makes this a valuable trade.
Ultimately, the analyst emphasizes that this was to be expected bounce back should not be mistaken for a complete market reversal. The broader direction remains firmly in a downtrend, and the final price target for this bearish cycle is $55,500.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com