The Bitcoin market appears to be at a critical stage, as evidenced by data from a recent on-chain assessment. According to this latest analysis, Bitcoin price shows little sign of a clear directional trend, with uncertainty being the dominant structure.
Bull Score Index within neutral territory
In one X message on May 2, pseudonymous market analyst Darkfost reveals that Bitcoin is in a transition phase, based on a reading of the Bitcoin Bull Score Index.
For context, this metric primarily measures overall market strength by combining key indicators – such as liquidity, demand, activity and sentiment – into a single metric that indicates whether conditions are bullish or bearish. According to Darkfost, the Bull Score is at 50, a level that the market expert considers neutral. While a ’50’ reading is typically taken as a sign of short-term improvement, it still does not reflect a shift in market structure.
We can clearly visualize on this graph which transition phase Bitcoin is currently in.
Caught between a breakout and a continuation of the correction.
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This Bull Score Index is a composite map that brings together several key indicators related to liquidity, demand, activity and… pic.twitter.com/NlhSDRdjtT
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 2, 2026
The bull index values are supported by a confluence of three on-chain events. First, while there is demand in the market, it is still too weak to have any impact on the price of Bitcoin. Second, a significant number of Bitcoin investors are still dealing with unrealized losses. The combination of low demand and high unrealized losses further reduces the likelihood of prices experiencing significant bullish pressure. This is because investors are increasingly forced to exit their positions rather than being incentivized to hold or add more positions.
The third part of this dynamic is the fact that too few investors are holding stocks while accumulating profits in their pockets. This is actually an important metric to keep an eye on, as healthy bullish markets are often characterized by widespread profitability among investors. As such, there is more confidence to maintain their positions and make more trades in the name of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Will Resume Bull Run?
Darkfost notes that Bitcoin is still transitioning to a more defined bullish structure. But even if this were to happen, the analyst notes that we still cannot conclude that a new bull cycle has begun. To be on the safe side, it would be wiser, the analyst implies, to view such steps as mere recovery within a broader correction cycle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,828. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up 0.86% over the past 24 hours, according to more data from CoinMarketCap.