There is a short window of opportunity coming for Bitcoin [BTC].
It appears that the outflows bottomed out in late December, and BTC is now priced at less than the cost to miners, where sales usually decline. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s proposal looks set to attract a larger market to BTC.
Although the crypto community has decided to sleep with one eye open this year, they may well emerge as beneficiaries!
Unintended (but welcome) consequences
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Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% is intended to help ease the burden on consumers, but it could impact more than just TradFi. Such a cap could limit access to credit for borrowers with lower credit scores (estimated at less than 780).
Banks will reassess who they lend to and at what cost.
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This will inevitably leave some of the market behind look for alternatives. Some of this displaced demand could move to Bitcoin and DeFi platforms where access is not tied to credit scores.
The risk moves
The average cost to mine one BTC was around $101,600 on January 10, while Bitcoin itself was trading closer to $90,900 a day later. Simply put: price has fallen down production costs.
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When mining becomes unprofitable, miners tend to slow sales and cut costs. The level is seen as a floor.
This doesn’t guarantee an immediate recovery, but trading below miners’ costs has so far been an area where downside risk has been lower.
A stable market
Analyst Willy Woo recently noted on X that Bitcoin outflows likely bottomed out in late December. That’s consistent with BTC falling below miners’ production costs and an early rebound now forming.
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These flow changes in price often take weeks to become apparent, which helps explain Bitcoin’s slow recovery. Futures activity is also starting to return, so there is near-term support.
Still, he remains cautious about 2026, as liquidity has been weak since the beginning of last year.
Without a clear recovery in inflows in the longer term, a rally would be difficult to sustain.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin appears poised for a near-term recovery.
- Trump’s 10% credit card interest cap could push more borrowers toward BTC.