Key Takeaways
Is the Bitcoin Cycle Top In?
No. According to experts, there is potential upside until late 2026 and early 2026.
Why has BTC disconnected from M2 liquidity?
A temporary government loan that has been net negative for liquidity and BTC since July.
The Crypto Twitter (CT) community is almost split down the middle on whether Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a bear market phase.
Not surprisingly, bearish claims have strengthened following the Oct. 10 deleveraging, which wiped out about $20 billion of positions.
BTC is barely holding above $100,000 in November, down about 21% from its recent peak of $126,000. Now the bearish camp is citing BTC’s decoupling from M2’s global liquidity supply as another potential downside signal.
What does M2 decoupling mean for BTC?
The M2 indicator tracks the level of total global liquidity. However, BTC also responds to “who has liquidity,” according to analyst Jesse Eckel.
Since July, when the U.S. government raised its debt ceiling in July, net dollar liquidity has been drained from markets, Eckel noted. This marked the decoupling of M2 and has affected the BTC price.
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He noted that year-over-year (YOY) liquidity, which was limited in 2025, saw massive growth in 2017 and 2021, leading to significant crypto rallies. Eckel added,
“The M2 BTC chart should start to correlate again once we see tradable liquidity in the market starting to rise as well. I believe our next big burst of YOY liquidity will happen in 2026.”
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Analysts call the October flush a ‘reset’
Most macro analysts, including BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, also had a similar view to BTC from a liquidity perspective.
As for the October flash crash, Coinbase considered this a healthy reset and not a cycle top. The analysts added,
“Our view on the sell-off is that this leverage flush was a necessary reset for the crypto markets and not a cycle top, potentially paving the way for a higher grind in the coming months.”
Source: Coinbase
Fundstrat CIO, Tom Lee, too agreed with the expectation that October’s leverage flash was a necessary respite before the next step up.
Moreover, the Coinbase analysts highlighted that the market was positioning itself for a BTC price range of $90,000 to $160,000 for the next three to six months, according to Options data.
Source: Coinbase
Overall, major players positioned themselves for a potential dip to $90,000, while expecting likely upside potential to $160,000 in the medium term.