- BTCs in the medium term seemed careful and aligned with the historic summer walk.
- Polymarket gamblers, however, expects a new ATH in Q3.
Bitcoin [BTC] Claimed $ 108.2k and expanded its mid-week to almost 10%, thanks to relatively quiet markets after the Israel-Iran Stakten-the-House.
Despite the short term Optimistic prospectsHowever, the market was praising in a caution in the medium term, according to Glassnode.
With reference to the Options Market sentiment indicator, 25 Delta Skew, The Analytics Firm marked Bearish sentiment as demonstrated by the negative skewing for 3 months and 6 months tenors.
“3m and 6m (skew) remain negative (-2.6%, -4.3%). Combined with a well-heavy volume profile, this points to reduced short-term panic, but persistent caution in the medium term.”
Source: Glassnode
This meant a premium for Putten (bearish bets) on calls (bullish bets) at the end of the quarter of Q3 and December 2025.
Summer season in the game?
It is not surprising that the above sentiment and market positioning, especially for the third quarter, reflected the summer seals.
According to Coinglass’ historical Performance, summer has always been the worst period for BTC. BTC placed an average of 6%return in Q3, with the best period Q4 (85%), followed by Q1 (54%).
Source: Coinglass
However, not all months within Q3 performed poorly in the past. In particular, July has been an out of a breaker, with an average of 7.5% return, which suggests that historical weakening in August and September.
If history repeats itself, July can offer modest profit, followed by sales pressure afterwards. Most analysts link this trend to low trading activity as a result of summer vacation.
Performance from the past, however, does not guarantee future results.
Polymarket gamblers even gambled against the aforementioned seasonal. The forecast site expects a new all -time High (ATH) for October, with more than one 85% chance For such a result.
In other words, the market expects a push above $ 112k in Q3. Analyst StockMoney Lizards reflect This consensus and looked at a potential jump to $ 115k in August.
Source: Stockmoney Lizards/X