Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels that are historically close to the bear market bottom, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone that often marks a late-stage capitulation. The key question: was the recent decline the final flush, or is there one final shakeout in store?
RSI compression signals downward exhaustion
According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same area that historically marked the bottom of the bear market. This momentum zone has appeared repeatedly during the late capitulation phases, making it a crucial signal that the market could be approaching another major turning point.
However, Batman is clear that this does not confirm that the bottom has been reached yet, and emphasizes the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before announcing a reversal. Still, he notes that when the RSI falls to these levels on the weekly time frame, Bitcoin has typically been much closer to a structural low than the start of a new collapse.
Looking back at the 2022 bear cycle, Batman points out that once the RSI entered this extreme zone, the price managed to make a final lower low. However, this move occurred very close to the final bottom, indicating that most of the downtrend had already played out by the time momentum reached such low values.
The analyst concludes that probabilities are more important than precision. From his perspective, Bitcoin, when trading at these weekly RSI levels, historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation is becoming increasingly attractive.
Bitcoin’s six consecutive weekly lower highs – a rare signal
In a recent weekly Bitcoin analysisSuperBro pointed out that BTC has now printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, a rare structural pattern. The last time this happened was during the 2020 COVID crash, a period marked by extreme volatility and eventual macro reversal.
The price is currently falling below the 200-week EMA and the volume Point of Control (POC), although the weekly candle has not yet closed. A retake of the POC before the shutdown could trigger a sharp upward reaction and signal that the breakdown attempt is losing steam.
Just below current levels is the rising 200-week SMA, which adds a new layer of support with a higher timeframe. The RSI remains at an extreme level, indicating that momentum is already deeply depressed. When you combine oversold conditions with six consecutive lower highs pressing for major support, the case for continued downside continuation becomes less compelling.
In addition to the short-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If that macro pattern eventually materializes, the upper trajectory projects potential targets above $300,000, keeping the long-term expansion thesis firmly on the table despite the current compression.