Bitcoin is consolidating near a crucial support band, with $77,000 being the key level to watch. A breakout above could signal bullish momentum and a trend reversal, while failure to hold Bitcoin could leave it in a corrective phase or push it lower.
Bitcoin is once again approaching critical high-frame support after a Fibonacci divergence at 0.786
Crypto analyst Luca marked that Bitcoin recently fell below the purple long-time support range, briefly diverging toward the 0.786 Fibonacci point around $65,900. Following this move, price is now approaching the previously lost support zone, which coincides with the early April 2025 bottom structure. This region also overlaps with the three-day Bull Market Support Band, an area that has served as a strong inflection point several times in recent months.
Luca explained that this convergence of technical levels is the reason he has not yet unwound his hedge positions. Instead, he prefers to remain cautious until the market provides clearer confirmation of strength. According to Luca, such confirmation would likely come from Bitcoin regaining the lost support range or breaking above the Bull Market Support Band.
Until that happens, the analyst warns that the current approach to this zone could still lead to a rejection, meaning the move could be a temporary rebound rather than a confirmed recovery. Luca also emphasized that traders should focus more on protecting capital than chasing profits at this stage. Only once there is clear strength and the probability shifts to a sustained upside continuation would it make sense to adopt a more aggressive bullish stance.
$77,000 emerges as the critical confirmation level for BTC
According to Luca, the main confirmation level he is currently looking at is around $77,000. A decisive breakout above that level would be a sign of stronger market momentum. Therefore, Luca plans to gradually reduce his hedge positions and roll that capital back into his spot positions, anticipating a more sustainable move to the upside.
Luca also noted that attempting to capture an additional 10 to 15% gain at current levels may not be the best risk decision. Rather than aggressively chasing short-term gains, he prefers to wait for clear confirmation that the market structure is shifting in favor of the bulls.
He added that the potential upside could be significantly greater if Bitcoin successfully regains the $77,000 level. However, exiting hedge positions too early could expose traders to the risk of a bullish fakeout, where the price briefly rises before the downtrend resumes. Because of that possibility, Luca maintains a cautious stance until stronger confirmation appears.