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Altcoin Season Index touches 76, Doge/BTC rallies and BTC.D prints lower lows. Will the index defy the 2024 cycle?
In addition to macro risks, a big headwind to Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has been the Altcoin market. On paper, BTC Back-to-Back resistance levels gets back, the last about $ 112k.
And yet BTC.D has not found 60% of the inflow, so that a red weekly candle is printed. In the meantime, total2 (market capitalization EX-BTC) has increased by 3.58%, which shows that capital is still haunting high-beta alts.
The result? The Altcoin Season Index rose 13% to 76 in one day, which officially indicates the first full altern season since the election run.
This also underlines the persistent risk-off behavior in BTC flows.
Source: Blockchaincenter
Simply put, traders chase an upside down outside of Bitcoin.
An example: Dogecoin [DOGE]. While Ethereum [ETH] A wall touches, where the ETH/BTC ratio failed at 0.04 resistance, the doge/BTC ratio in less than two weeks almost 10% tears, which views the 0.0000024 ceiling.
Interestingly, the current market cycle reflects the previous election run, Memecoin Mania is increasing, BTC.d is sliding and ETH/BTC remains put down.
Given how the Altcoin seal index broke out in 2024 during similar circumstances, can we witness a repeat performance?
Traders, why caution is justified!
During the election cycle, BTC.D placed his worst weekly run in two years.
The Altcoin Season Index reached 88 at the beginning of December and dragged BTC.d in the same piece by 10% to 54%. However, when BTC.D bounced back to 65%in mid-June, the Altcoin season index had crashed to 12.
Alts was destroyed when overloaded positions blew up. Fast-Forward Until now, Coinalyze shows Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) Dominance By 38%, which means that Alt -Leverage is 50% higher than BTC, so that a busy playbook is set up.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
In short, the Altcoin Season index flirts with another blow-off top.
But there is an important divergence: BTC.d has posted two lower lows since the 65% peak. In contrast to the election cycle, when capital back in Bitcoin [BTC]Alt inflow continues to climb, so that BTC.D remains under pressure.
Why does this matter? According to Ambcrypto, investors stay away from Bitcoin, so that it is locked in a heel.
As long as this pattern applies, the Altcoin seal index will continue to focus and can challenge its 88 -top.