21Shares has released its latest report, ‘State of Crypto’, claiming that Bitcoin [BTC] has not broken away from its traditional four-year market cycle.
The report noted that many analysts believed the cycle had ended in early 2026. However, Bitcoin’s price action continued to closely resemble previous post-halving cycles.
Bitcoin peaked at nearly $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a sharp correction. Since then, the trajectory has largely reflected previous market cycles.
Is the Bitcoin Cycle Broken Yet?
The authors emphasizeHowever, this does not completely refute the idea that the market has changed.
They said:
Bitcoin’s cycle is evolving, but not yet broken.
Therefore, the current 50% decline is much less severe than the 80% to 90% declines that have occurred in previous bear markets. Another important difference is that
Remarkably, bitcoin has also so far avoided the outright capitulation that defined previous downturns; it has not yet traded below its total cost basis of $54,000.
If the market remains above this level, it indicates that it has not yet entered the widespread panic selling phase that has historically marked the bottom of bear cycles.
Mixed sentiment can confuse investors
The report argued that stronger fundamentals do not make Bitcoin immune to market cycles. Investor sentiment continues to be strongly influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions.
Still, 21Shares predicted that Bitcoin could recover towards $100,000 by the end of 2026.
That outlook aligned with AMBCrypto’s analysis, which suggested Bitcoin could bounce back to $65,460 if bullish momentum strengthens.
But the ETF market is showing signs of stress, with outflows of $2.92 billion in June 2026 and $2.34 billion in May. Although there was an inflow of billions in March and April, there was only an outflow in January and February.
What does the SOPR ratio indicate?
Meanwhile, the LTH/STH SOPR ratio, which contrasts the profits of long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), is largely below 1 (with sporadic spikes above 1) and has recently fallen to around 0.7.
While seasoned investors continue to show their conviction, the latest data shows that short-term bonds responding to recent price volatility are the main source of selling pressure.
Moreover, the latest Bitfinex Alpha report indicates this The net gamma exposure of market makers has become negative. This is happening while Bitcoin was trading below the gamma flip level of around $68,000-$70,000. Volatility is more likely to be higher in this context because dealers’ hedging activities tend to intensify price swings rather than stabilizing them.
Final summary
- After $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop in value.
- Short-term investor caution remains, but Bitcoin’s institutional adoption continues to strengthen its fundamentals.