Bitcoin is currently trading above $80,000 as market bulls support the recovery from early April. However, the flagship cryptocurrency remains firmly in bear market territory, down about 37.5% from its all-time high. Amid the ongoing rally, crypto analyst Aralez has outlined a potential price trajectory for the remainder of 2026, highlighting the key macroeconomic and market catalysts likely to shape Bitcoin’s next big move.
Bitcoin will fall again, cycle bottom probably in Q3
In one X message on May 8, Aralez shares an interesting Bitcoin price forecast for the last eight months of 2026. Although prices have risen 13% over the past month, the market expert predicts that Bitcoin should eventually move towards $60,000 before the current quarter ends. The expected price pullback is expected to coincide with a decline in the S&P 500 below $6,000, signaling a deteriorating or unfavorable macroeconomic environment. At this point, panic is expected to hit the market, leading to a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment.
MARKET FORECAST END 2026:
MAY-JUNE:
– $BTC falls towards $60k – S&P 500 is <$6.8k – Panic takes over the market
Question 3:
– BTC forms cycle bottom + accumulation begins – New Fed chairman + signals for early rate cuts – Distrust in crypto reaches peak levels – S&P 500 is <$5.9k… https://t.co/d7BkISInp9 pic.twitter.com/DuFVYPEvv3
— Aralez
(@0xAralez) May 8, 2026
Entering the third quarter, Aralez foresees a long-awaited cycle bottom, where the sell-off should have slowed as long-term investors begin to add to their positions. Nevertheless, there is still said to be a general distrust towards Bitcoin, with sentiment being predominantly negative. At the same time, new US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to signal an early rate cut, which should boost macro confidence. Meanwhile, Aralez also predicts a decline in the S&P 500 below $5,900, reinforcing the idea that broader financial markets could still be under pressure even as smart money quietly positions itself.
Question 4: New cycle begins
Entering the fourth quarter, Aralez expects a decisive shift into recovery territory, with Bitcoin breaking above $85,000 as market momentum strengthens and accumulation from previous phases begins to be reflected in price action. This phase is expected to coincide with the formal start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will signal a marked easing of monetary conditions and an improvement in overall liquidity in financial markets.
With confidence gradually returning, the analysis points to the start of a new market cycle, driven by renewed institutional participation and continued accumulation of risky assets. At the same time, the S&P 500 is expected to stabilize around the 6,000 level, indicating that while equity markets may recover some ground, the broader macro environment is in a cautious rebuilding phase.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,416, reflecting a small gain of 1.46% in the past hour.