Bitcoin [BTC] rose to $79.2k on May 2, but at the time of writing, BTC was rejected from a key local resistance zone. Notably, Glassnode reported that defensive positioning increased as the price approached the psychological resistance at $80,000.
In a post on X, the crypto intelligence platform highlighted that takers were selling calls and buying downside protection. The post also used the BTC options data to highlight how the $82k level could trigger a short squeeze.
Implied Volatility fell in April, while the upside was sold and not chased. A new short squeeze could be just around the corner.
Bitcoin recovery lacks stable demand
Using the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric, crypto analyst Darkfost noted that it was too early to conclude that Bitcoin had transitioned into a bullish regime.
The metric is calculated as the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of coins that have been inactive for more than a year. It follows the structural accumulation or distribution trends over the higher time frames.
The chart showed that the 30-day sum was still -44,700 BTC. Although there was an improvement from -89,000 in early April, the negative figures meant that apparent demand was still weak.
For most of 2026, this measure was negative, indicating indecisive demand development.
Since mid-February, the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin net flows to exchanges has been negative, apart from a brief spike in late March. This past week, the metric’s 7DMA climbed into positive territory with more certainty.
Currency inflows generally indicate increased selling pressure, which fits well with the idea that holders became more defensive as BTC rose towards $80,000.
The long term BTC bet
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, outlined decisive price markups in a post on X.
He recommended betting against BTC at the current retest of the short-term holder’s realized price, while he wanted to buy against the retest of the long-term holder’s realized price. It really could be as simple as selling Bitcoin now and buying in the $50,000-$55,000 region.
Final summary
- The options data showed defensive positioning. The upside was that it was sold, not chased.
- Long-term price dynamics showed that BTC could fall towards $50,000 later this year, which would be interesting for long-term holders.