Bitcoin has spent April initiate a recovery the March low and briefly rose above $79,000 again. However, not everyone is convinced of the rebound, and some analysts believe this move is just a mid-bear market rally before a deeper correction.
One such analyst is one who previously predicted an upcoming peak in July 2025. Now the same analyst is predicting how far the Bitcoin price has to fall before it will fall. provides a real bottom.
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Analyst uses previous top model to predict Bitcoin bottom
Crypto analyst Killa made a cycle top prediction from $121,362 in June 2025. This call was made months before Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and was only down about 3.9%. Now, using the same analytical framework that generated this call, Killa has turned the model to the downside.
The principle behind the projection is that each successive Bitcoin market cycle returns a smaller multiple from the bottom of the previous cycle, reflecting the maturation of the asset. His five-cycle data shows the high-to-bottom multiple dropping from 15.50x in the first cycle to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and then 4.47x in cycle 4, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 before bottoming out at $15,600.
Applying the same reduction rate, Killa projects the current cycle multiple at 3.25x, splitting the cycle top of $126,100 to arrive at a base target of $38,800.
To account for the 5% variance that wiped out his top forecast, he added two upside scenarios of $40,740 and $42,680. Even at the high end of that range, Bitcoin would still be well below the $60,000 level that some market participants have cited as a correction bottom.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @KillaXBT On X
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,015, meaning a move to $42,680 would still require a drop of around 45%, while a further drop to $38,800 would be almost a 50% correction from current prices.
Three years up, one year down
Killa’s bottom projection finds support from a separate analysis from analyst CryptoBullet, who approached the question of a bottom project. from a symmetry point of view.
CryptoBullets weekly Bitcoin chart characterized the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave advance beginning in late 2022, with Wave 5 completing in October 2025 around the high of $126,000. The subsequent correction, referred to as a WXY correction structure in blue, projects a final phase of Wave Y down $50,000 to $45,000.
Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: @CryptoBullet1 On X
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According to the analyst, three years of upward price action from the November 2022 low through the 2025 high cannot reasonably be corrected in less than one year of decline. The current bear phase is shown to extend into the second half of 2026 before bottom construction can be completed.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView