The case for Bitcoin [BTC] The ongoing bullish breakout continues to weaken as on-chain indicators point to increasing imbalances, especially compared to historical cycles.
Bitcoin climbed to the $79,000 region in the early hours of April 23. However, past market fractals indicate that the asset may not yet be experiencing a structurally healthy rally. Instead, current positioning indicates continued downside risk, largely related to the behavior of the spot market.
The perpetual rally raises concerns about sustainability
Recent price action has sparked debate over whether Bitcoin’s upward movement can be sustained. Data increasingly suggests the rally remains vulnerable.
The Spot and Perpetual Futures Demand Growth metric, which tracks participation in both market segments, shows a clear difference. Demand for perpetual futures contracts continues to increase, while spot market demand remains largely inactive.
Perpetual demand has now surged to the highest level since October 2025, underscoring the extent to which leveraged traders are driving the market. In contrast, spot market demand has failed to keep pace, leaving the rally without a strong fundamental foundation.
A similar setup emerged in January. At the time, ongoing demand increased while spot participation lagged. Bitcoin then peaked near $98,000 before entering an extended correction phase.
If this pattern repeats, the current structure leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to a similar decline, with a potential move towards $60,000. Such a scenario would likely begin with unwinding positions in the perpetual market, followed by continued weakness in spot demand.
Liquidation heat map data outlines two short-term paths. The price could return to the $76,000 zone, where buy-side liquidity is concentrated, or extend further towards $80,000, where sell orders are stacked.
Spot flows are tilting the BTC market toward supply dominance
Spot market activity continues to reinforce bearish pressure rather than support the rally.
Exchange Netflow data, which measures the balance between inflows and outflows on centralized exchanges, shows that supply remains dominant and sellers have consistently outpaced buyers in recent sessions.
More than $239 million worth of Bitcoin has been floated in the past 48 hours, more than what demand could absorb. This imbalance signals a persistent distribution, with investors reducing their exposure in the face of rising prices.
The trend continues throughout the week, with total spot sales reaching approximately $342 million. This continued sell-side pressure strengthens the argument that the rally lacks strong support.
As a result, downside risk remains high. A continuation of current flows increases the chances of a move towards the $76,000 support zone.
Structural weaknesses continue to surface
Underlying indicators started signaling potential weakness even before the last price move.
AMBCrypto reported how key signals associated with bull markets are missing early on, including the crossover between the realized prices of short-term and long-term holders. Without this shift, market conviction will remain limited.
At the same time, network activity has been trending downward even as prices rose, reflecting a market driven more by speculative positioning than organic demand growth.
Some analysts argue that the broader bear cycle may still be intact, and projections suggest it could continue for another five to six months. In this context, the recent price strength could represent a temporary uptrend rather than the start of a sustained trend, exposing investors to further volatility.
Final summary
- Bitcoin has entered a speculative phase, with perpetual futures traders driving price action while spot demand remains weak.
- Spot market participants have introduced $239 million in excess supply, which exceeds current demand.