- Hayes predicted that BTC could dump during the halving.
- However, Peter Brandt only expects a dump after a light pump.
Bitcoin [BTC] continued its recovery, reaching $72.7K, just inches away from the mid-March record high of $73.7K. The additional recovery punished more bears as liquidations of short positions spiked.
With the Bitcoin halving less than two weeks away, some market watchers are predicting a correction, while others are predicting a possible dump around the event.
The founder of the BitMEX exchange, Arthur Hayes, considers April to be excellent for short trading positions due to the upcoming liquidity crisis. In a recent one blogging mail, Hayes noted;
“The story that the halving is positive for crypto prices is well established. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually happens. Therefore, I believe that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices in general will fall around the halving mark.”
Hayes added,
“Given that the halving is taking place at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than normal, this will drive a frenzy of crypto asset selling.”
BTC Halving Event: Will the Price Fall or Rise?
However, Peter Brandt and Benjamin Cowen had similar but different predictions for the BTC price during the halving compared to Hayes.
According to Brandt and CowenBTC could follow a similar trend to the spot launch of BTC ETF. If so, we could be witnessing a price pump and then a dump.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Brandt predicted the dump could happen in the second half of April, by May.
Based on the projection, the dump could ease in early May, similar to what Hayes believes could be the best time to resume trading. Part of Hayes’ message read;
“The timing of the halving adds even more weight to my decision not to trade until May.”
AMBcrypto’s Evaluation of Open Interest (OI) facts from Coinglass showed that OI has fluctuated between $31 billion and $36 billion since mid-March. For those unfamiliar, open interest rates indicate the number of open futures contracts and by extension, show the liquidity levels in the futures market.
The sideways move in OI corresponds with BTC’s price consolidation around the all-time high of the previous cycle. A sharp drop in the benchmark could confirm Hayes’ preference for a dip in liquidity.
However, caution is advised as we approach the halving.