Crypto analyst Kevin, known online as Kev Capital TA, said he started buying Dogecoin again after the memecoin fell back to what he described as a key long-term support zone near $0.095. In one video Published on April 20, Kevin argued that the level matters because it aligns with the measured move target of Dogecoin’s weekly bear flag and with a price area that has repeatedly functioned as support and resistance in previous cycles.
Dogecoin could be close to a major turning point
Kevin said Dogecoin’s corrective move from the December 2024 cycle high near $0.49 has now largely achieved the downside target he had been eyeing for months. “If you just take the measured move target of the bear flag pattern, you are essentially at the exact same price as the measured move target,” he said, placing that target at around $0.095.
According to him, that level is not only a technical goal, but also a historically important zone. Kevin pointed back to August 2024, when Dogecoin bottomed near the same area before rising sharply in the fourth quarter, and to earlier periods in 2022, 2023 and early 2024, when the band acted as a resistance, support or breakout retest level. “This is an important level, right? This is a big big zone,” he said. “You found support here in January 2024 before we went to the 23 cent level. You found support here again in the summer of 2024 before we went to 49 cents.”
Related reading
Still, Kevin fell far short of calling a confirmed macro bottom in Dogecoin. His broader framework remains focused on Bitcoin, which he repeatedly described as the market’s key signal. “Altcoin charts don’t live in their own world,” he said. “Bitcoin is the captain. Bitcoin is the king. Bitcoin is the queen. However you want to say it, however you want to divide it, that’s the way the market goes.”
That point formed the rest of his Dogecoin thesis. Kevin said he has taken a position at current levels, but only as part of a gradual accumulation plan that depends heavily on how Bitcoin behaves in the coming weeks. “I have initiated a position in Dogecoin at these levels in our private group,” he said. “My plan is to keep investing in it if I get the chance. If Bitcoin were to go lower… then I hope to get the chance to then slowly, very slowly allocate Dogecoin, all the way down into this $0.08, $0.07, $0.06, maybe $0.05.”
His short-term reading is constructive, but only in a limited sense. He pointed to an improvement in weekly money flow, buy signals, upward movement in the weekly stochastic RSI and a bullish turn in LMACD on lower time frames as evidence that the market is in a counter-trend rally in late winter and early spring. But he argued that Dogecoin still faces a tough technical ceiling before traders can talk about a real trend reversal.
Related reading
On the weekly chart, Kevin said Dogecoin should reclaim the 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA around the low $0.11 area, while higher resistance bands are around $0.136, $0.147 and $0.161 depending on the moving average used. On the monthly chart, he said the picture is even less convincing. Dogecoin closed below the 100 monthly EMA for the first time in its history, according to Kevin, while monthly momentum, money flow, and LMACD have yet to show the kind of reset he associates with the end of a bear market.
“Consider it a bear market for now,” he said. “This counter-trend rally is nice, but for now it is still just a counter-trend rally in the crypto market until proven otherwise.”
That leaves Dogecoin in a familiar place: attractive enough for selective accumulation, but still dependent on Bitcoin to validate a broader reversal. Kevin said he expects the “real bottom” of the cycle to occur sometime between July and October if the standard four-year pattern continues. Until then, his message was less about chasing Dogecoin itself than about looking at the asset that still sets the tone for everything around it.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.09558.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com