Bitcoin [BTC] Mining flows now reflect a clear stress cycle, with operational pressures driving market supply rather than discretionary selling.
Between 2022 and 2023, miners distributed between 15,000 and 20,000 BTC per quarter, steadily fueling market liquidity.
Selling then cooled into 2024, with flows falling below 10,000 BTC and briefly turning negative in the fourth quarter, indicating a short-lived balance sheet recovery.
That relief disappeared, however, when more than 32,000 BTC were sold in the first quarter of 2026, marking a forced liquidation phase. This shift emerges as the hash price falls near $33/PH/s/day, below the $35 breakeven, leaving nearly 20% of miners at a loss.
If Miners reserves drops towards 1.8 million BTC, the supply enters circulation, but absorption now determines whether the price stabilizes or increases volatility.
Miners’ exhaustion is taking over as selling pressure subsides
As previous foreclosures begin to resolve, miners’ behavior is now showing a gradual shift from pressure to exhaustion. Previously, strong sales peaks aligned with cycle peaks, reflecting profit-taking and margin-driven distribution.
However, this dynamic weakens after the halving as block rewards decline and weaker miners are driven out, explaining the sharp drop in selling power towards -5.9.
More importantly, the Miner’s Position Index (MPI) remained in negative territory for weeks, often between -0.8 and -1.0, showing reduced outflows to the stock markets.
That phase indicated that miners had already released the most urgent supply. Now the MPI returns to 0, indicating that sales are no longer accelerating but stabilizing.
This indicates that the most urgent supply has already hit the market.
While this reduces downward pressure, it also shifts control to demand, meaning price stability around $77,000 now depends on continued capital inflows rather than just on miner behavior.
Demand test check after miner exhaustion
As pressure from miners eases, the market is moving towards a demand-driven phase where ETFs should absorb the remaining supply. Inflow have shown repeated peaks above $300 million, indicating strong absorption capacity rather than continued accumulation.
This difference matters because the MPI remained deeply negative, bottoming out near -1.04 before stabilizing. This indicates that the outflow of miners has already slowed significantly. Now that structural selling pressure is easing, prices are experiencing less forced resistance.
However, participation in ETFs remains incidental and is not increasing, while spot volumes still lag behind those of derivatives.
At nearly $77,000, continuation depends on institutional demand becoming consistent, while uneven inflows risk continuing consolidation despite improving supply conditions.
Final summary
- BTC has absorbed miners’ supply after the 32,000 BTC sell-off, shifting control to demand near $77,000.
- Bitcoin now relies on consistent inflows as uneven demand threatens consolidation despite easing selling pressure.