XRP is trading around a critical price level. The market is showing signs of life – driven by reports of possible negotiations between the US and Iran that have increased risk sentiment in financial markets. But the derivatives data on Binance tells a more cautious story about what those marks are actually worth.
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A CryptoQuant report tracking XRP’s leverage structure has identified an asymmetry that goes directly against the bullish surface value. Over the past 30 days, liquidations of long positions on Binance reached approximately $39.8 million – more than double the $19.7 million of liquidations of short positions recorded during the same period. The market has punished buyers twice as much as sellers.
That ratio is important because it describes the current market’s relationship with optimism. Every time XRP traders have positioned themselves upward, the market has extracted disproportionate costs from those positions. The geopolitical catalyst could change sentiment. The leverage structure doesn’t yet reflect a market that has earned the right to move higher – it reflects a market that has been burned repeatedly for trying.
The bullish signals are real. The foundation underneath is still being tested.
Caution is winning. It hasn’t won yet
The report adds a behavioral layer that confirms what the liquidation asymmetry means. The cumulative 30-day financing rate has registered a slightly negative value of around -0.000007, a modest value, but one that has consistently remained in negative territory. In the derivatives markets, persistent negative financing means traders pay to hold short positions instead of long positions. That is not a neutral positioning. It is a market that is leaning against recovery, not trending towards it.
The combined picture – long liquidations twice as fast as short liquidations, financing tilted negatively, leverage reduced from previous periods – describes a derivatives market that has systematically reduced its bullish exposure. That process of removing overextension is, paradoxically, the most constructive development visible in the data. When leveraged long positions are removed from the market and positioning becomes lighter and more two-sided, the mechanical risk of successive liquidations in either direction decreases.
What remains is a market that has shed its excess, but has not yet found its conviction. The simultaneous decline in both long and short liquidations confirms that the overextension is being resolved. The continued dominance of long-term liquidations confirms that the solution is not yet complete.
The lever reset is in progress. It’s not ready yet. When this is the case – and when the liquidity comes with it – the conditions for a bigger move will exist in a way that they don’t currently. The direction of that movement will depend on which catalyst arrives first
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XRP is consolidating below resistance as the downtrend structure continues
XRP continues to trade in a compressed range near $1.38, following a long-term downtrend that began after the late 2025 peak. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with the price consistently rejected below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages. Both indicators are sloping downwards, reinforcing the broader bearish structure. The 200-day moving average (red), which is now well above the current price, confirms that XRP is in a macro correction phase.
The February capitulation stands out as a structural reset, marked by a sharp spike in volume and a quick move below $1.20 before reaching higher levels again. Since then, XRP has stabilized, but the recovery lacks momentum. The volume has steadily declined, indicating reduced participation rather than strong accumulation.
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The price is now compressing just below short-term resistance, repeatedly failing to break above the declining 50-day moving average. This type of consolidation often precedes expansion, but the direction remains unclear. A recovery from the $1.50-$1.60 zone would be necessary to counter the current downtrend. Until then, XRP remains structurally weak, with consolidation reflecting equilibrium and not strength.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com