Bitcoin [BTC] has traded within a declining channel since its peak of $126,000 in October 2025. Amid this long-term downtrend, the king coin fell below the price realized by STH, implying that all recent buyers made a loss.
Data from Checkonchain shows that more than 45.8% of the total supply is currently making a loss, while only 54.12% is making a profit. The mounting losses have prompted most market participants to capitulate, especially the whales.
Bitcoin whales post a $337 million loss in the first quarter
Investors holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have realized a loss of $30.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Of these losses, whales have recorded the largest losses at $337 million per day, according to CryptoRover.
This marked the highest daily loss rate since the 2022 bear market, signaling one of the most aggressive distribution cycles ever.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders contributed approximately $200 million daily. Historically, this type of sustained loss realization has not produced a bottom in the cycle, but rather emerged before deeper downturns.
During previous cycles, troughs formed as realized losses cooled, averaging $25 million per day. At the current market price, this market is far from reaching such a low level.
Coupled with this, LTH and STH stocks held at a loss have remained extremely high. According to data from Checkonchain, the supply of LTHs and STHs averaged 4k BTC per day from March to early April.
As supply continued to rise at a loss, investors have lost confidence and tried to cut losses, as evidenced by the recently realized losses.
What’s next for BTC?
While recent market sentiment could point to strategic tax loss harvesting, it also warns of intense external forces pushing the market toward capital preservation.
The mounting losses and realization of losses have significantly stretched the market, increasing downside risk. Looking at the upside and downside volatility indicator, the market remains stuck in indecision.
Upside volatility is 1.9, downside volatility is 1.6, and spread is -0.10, indicating a slight bearish trend. At the same time, the momentum bias showed weak momentum, with neither trend being strong.
Historically, such market conditions have preceded long-term consolidation. If the prevailing sentiment continues, BTC could extend the sideways move between $70,000 and $65,000
However, if the realization of losses accelerates as demand weakens, the market could collapse again, likely falling to $62,500.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s realized losses in the first quarter were $30.9 billion, while whales’ realized losses were over $337 million.
- BTC remains stuck in indecision with reduced volatility despite increased loss realization.