After the ceasefire deadline passed on April 8, US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire period without specifying another deadline. The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire reduced tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the risk of an immediate supply shock.
While oil fell from $110 to $94-$95, Bitcoin fell [BTC] lost its crisis-induced bid, slowing the reactive flows. This shift pushed markets away from hedge demand and back towards macro-driven positioning. As pressure subsided, the DVOL fell below 46, implying that the market has cooled from a state of high volatility to compression.
Implied volatility remained near 43% for seven days Realized volatility remained around 32%. This gap implied that the risk was too expensive, which encouraged trading within a certain range.
This explains why BTC remained stuck between $75,000 and $78,000 while conviction weakened. In the meantime, financing rates have remained the same and approximately $25 billion has been raised Open interest (OI) within 24 hours of going to press, leverage emerged, keeping markets steady but slowing expansion.
Declining demand keeps Bitcoin range bound
As volatility cooled, the expected follow-through from buyers never came, leaving Bitcoin without any upside momentum. The Coinbase Premium Index turned slightly positive on April 21, indicating modest US institutional interest, but this has not translated into aggressive expansion.
As this weakness has persisted, ETF inflows have declined from over $900 million to $250 million, indicating that institutional support has shifted from expansion to stabilization. Meanwhile, daily volume remained around $2.29 billion, reflecting hesitation rather than conviction.
Moreover, the downside was also limited, which explains the absence of bad luck. The MVRV held steady at almost 1.40, so holders continued to make profits with no urgency to sell. As the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered around 1.00, participants avoided losses and small gains, reinforcing investment behavior. This equilibrium kept Bitcoin’s range within range, delaying decisive moves.
A spiral spring is created while smart money remains sidelined
As volatility cooled, smart money abandoned its aggressive positioning, preventing Bitcoin from making a significant change in price. In fact, the OTC unrealized profit ratio of almost 0.1383 remained well below the global MVRV of 1.40. This meant that miners had little incentive to sell, and this suppressed downward pressure.
Binance inflows also remained low, confirming that older coins remained inactive. This imbalance created a coil spring as supply remained locked while demand wavered, creating a sharp move once a macro trigger returned.
Final summary
- Bitcoin remained trapped in a volatility compression phase as weak demand and declining leverage kept the price between $75,000 and $78,000 despite easing macro pressures.
- BTC was in a coil spring setup, with idle supply and sidelined capital building pressure for a sharp move once a macro catalyst returns.