Bitcoin’s latest sideways price action around $70,000 is being read by some traders as a sign that the cryptocurrency is finally settling down. However, technical analysis shows that the structure is now forming on the daily chart may not really be a recovery basis nothing more than a distribution pattern before a new low that has already appeared once before during a larger decline since late 2025.
Bitcoin’s distribution mechanism is still the same
According to a crypto analyst who goes by the name Ardi on the social media platform keep looking identical because the mechanism never really changes. This is in relation to Bitcoin’s current price action, which has been trading between $63,000 and $72,000 since early February.
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The idea behind this technical analysis is that Bitcoin’s behavior in bearish phases tends to follow a recognizable sequence. Price moves within a range, traders start to view the consolidation as stability, liquidity builds above local highs and then a short break above the range brings out optimism many crypto traders.
However, that optimism doesn’t last forever. Once the price fails to hold above the range highs, the structure begins to weaken and the next breakdown of the range support occurs.
The chart accompanying the analysis contains two nearly identical subsections. The initial distribution range was between approximately the mid-$80,000s and low-$90,000s between November 2025 and January 2026.
This move eventually ended with Bitcoin moving higher, reaching a high around $96,000, failing to accept above the range, and then breaking off towards the bottom of the range. That decline led to a break below the low support level, eventually pushing the price down to $63,000 in early February.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @ArdiNSC On X
Why a move below $50,000 is now on the table
A swipe of it local highs above $76,000 in early March headlines generated about it how the Bitcoin price is recovering now. However, the price ultimately failed to stay above the range and started rolling again. As it stands now, the price action over the past few days has been mainly bearish candlesticks, which has caused the Bitcoin price to are pushing bottom of the current range again.
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The most bearish part of the chart is the projected zone that follows the current range. Projecting the previous price cut in late January onto the current price action would result in a Bitcoin price drop below the local floor of $63,000.
In particular, the chart projected a similar outcome, with the highlighted markdown box extending to $50,000 and as high as $48,000. This projection follows similar forecasts from multiple analysts who have predicted Bitcoin could come in under $50,000 before making a new base.
Featured image of Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com