Bitcoin [BTC] rose to $74,050 on Wednesday, March 4. However, it fell below the $70k support in the last 24 trading hours. The move underscored that the aggressive selling pressure that drove BTC to $60,000 in February has cooled somewhat, but a broader market recovery was not yet in sight.
AMBCrypto reported that the Bull Score Index was near 10, indicating weak market sentiment. The Coinbase Premium Index, which had climbed into positive territory in recent days, also returned to negative territory.
Weak participants and sentiment indicated limited conviction in the rally. This means that the current Bitcoin retracement could extend further south. So the question is: how far and how fast?
Bitcoin under pressure again
Source: Axel Adler Jr. on X
In one message on Xcrypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that selling pressure from long-term holders could increase again.
Long-term holders are defined as the cohort of Bitcoin holders who have held their stock for at least 155 days without moving it.
At the same time, long-term holdings remained profitable on average, despite the 46% price drop since October. At the bottom of the previous cyclelong-term owners faced large losses as prices fell below their average cost base.
At the time of writing, this cost base was $39.8k. And a major price drop toward this level is still likely later in 2026.
The case for a Bitcoin rally towards $83,000
Expect volatility to remain high over the next two months. The 30-day MVRV ratio reached local highs, showing that 30-day holders averaged nearly 8% in gains. Given recent news developments, profit taking could be perfectly reasonable.
However, the 90 and 180 day MVRV ratios were more interesting. They had many similarities with what happened in December-January.
At the time, the 30-day MVRV continued to jump into slim profit margins. The mid-January rally also saw 90-day holders (on average) make profits. Then a strong retracement wave started as Bitcoin fell to $60,000.
In the coming weeks, Bitcoin could rise to $83,000 and even $89,000 to chase short liquidations and put the market in a bullish mood before falling further. Traders can keep an eye on the 90-day MVRV metric and its similarities to January.
The Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook
Another crypto analyst, Donkerfostpointed out that short-term holders (BTC holders of 155 days or younger) as many as 27.5k BTC in profitable exchanges. This profit-taking pressure has likely led to a price drop below $70,000.
The amount of STH BTC sent to exchanges at a profit was also among the highest in recent weeks. It is possible that fear and uncertainty could push prices below $68,000 in the coming days.
Final summary
- Selling pressure from long-term and short-term holders caused Bitcoin to lose its tenuous grip at the $70,000 support.
- The realized price for short-term holders was $68,000, and a bullish reaction from here could be possible in the coming days.