Bitcoin’s recent break above $70,000 leads to questions whether this is the start of another impulsive leg up or just another stopover a longer soil process.
Crypto analyst CrypFlow, placed at X, explained one technical argument as to why Bitcoin may be in the early stages of forming a major cycle bottom and why October 2026 could mark the launching pad for the next large-scale bull run. The analysis is based on multi-year trend lines, cycle behavior and the Stochastic RSI indicator.
Bitcoin respects the trend line that has existed since 2018
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the monthly time frame shows that the leading cryptocurrency’s price action is still respecting a multi-year trendline that has quietly formed Bitcoin’s biggest cycle lows. That rising trendline connects the bottom of the 2018 cycle to the bottom of 2022 and now appears to be acting as support again in 2026. Bitcoin’s current position is now right on top of that structure.
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CrypFlow also pointed out a large horizontal zone that previously acted as resistance around the 2021 cycle top. That old ceiling around $69,000 is now being tested as support in the current price action. That kind of role reversal is very important to Bitcoin’s price action, as it shows that the cryptocurrency may be trying to build a base at the intersection of that old resistance band and the rising trendline.
If Bitcoin succeeds stay above the current zone near $69,000, without falling back to $50,000, this would reflect the structure we see at the 2022 bottom. That low occurred at a similar confluence where the rising trendline met the previous cycle’s resistance from the 2017 peak.
Timeline for a new bull run
Price levels receive full attention. Time gets almost none, and according to CrypFlow, that’s exactly where most people misjudge this cycle. The analyst pointed to the Stochastic RSI to track how long this indicator has spent below the zero line during each major bear market cycle, and the historical pattern is striking in its consistency.
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In the 2018/2019 cycle, the Stochastic RSI spent about 365 days below zero before Bitcoin made its real turnaround and the next bull market began. The same was true of the 2022/2023 bear market cycle, in which Bitcoin spent about a full year below zero before starting a sustainable recovery. This cycle, however, Bitcoin’s stochastic RSI declined. has only been downstairs zero for about 120 days.
All in all, this opens up a scenario where Bitcoin forms one double bottom later this year, probably around October 2026, before the next big bull run begins. This doesn’t mean necessarily Bitcoin is about to crash further. What it does suggest, according to CrypFlow, is that price action has not yet completed the slow, grinding work on which true cycle bottoms are built.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com