Bitcoin [BTC] appears to be recovering, but market sentiment tells a more complicated story. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading around $72,791 and has gained approximately 1.82% over the past 24 hours.
Its influence on the broader market is also growing, with Bitcoin’s dominance rising to 59.83% and slowly approaching the all-important 60% level.
However, price movements are only part of the picture. Although Bitcoin’s chart is showing signs of strength, many traders are still cautious after the sharp market decline in early February, as evidenced by Santiment’s Weighted Sentiment.
Source: Santiment
Will history repeat itself?
The fear in the market today stems from a pattern that many traders remember from February 2022. When the war between Russia and Ukraine started, Bitcoin did not crash immediately.
Instead, it rose almost 40% as some investors treated it like digital gold and pulled money out of traditional systems.
But that rally didn’t last long. As the economic consequences of the war became apparent, the market turned sharply and Bitcoin ultimately fell approximately 67% from its highs.
Now a similar concern arises in 2026. Rising tensions between the US and Iran have prompted some traders think that Bitcoin could rise again in the short term as a hedge against global instability.
Some analysts believe this could push BTC into the $78,000-$80,000 range.
However, many are concerned that such a move may not signal a strong bull market. Instead, it could be a temporary rise before a larger correction, especially if global economic conditions worsen.
Analysts are unsure
Nic Puckrin, co-founder and chief analyst at Coin Bureau, commented on this situation in an email to AMBCrypto:
“As markets open after a tumultuous weekend, there are major fears that we are heading into a 2022-style energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
He argued,
“At the time, Brent crude spiked above $120 a barrel and inflation exploded. But it’s too early to say whether the same scenario will play out.”
Analyst Ali Martinez echoes similar sentiments added,
“Bitcoin may be preparing for a relief rally, and both on-chain data and the technical structure support that possibility.”
Ali highlighted that spot ETFs are aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, while Glassnode’s URPD indicator shows relatively thin supply above the current price level.
After reclaim Resistance at $70,685 appears to limit supply between $72,000 and $81,000, suggesting BTC could move more easily within this range as momentum increases.
Therefore, according to Ali, the next major resistance zones are around $83,307 and $84,569.
The immediate response to the war on crypto
However, recent data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin reached nearly $1.8 billion in sales volume within an hour of the US attacking Iran.
However, despite this intense pressure, the asset managed to remain above the key $60,000 level, demonstrating a degree of resilience during a period of heightened geopolitical tension.
Yet it is still too early to draw firm conclusions.
Going forward, the market could either stabilize and form a new support level shaped by global uncertainty, or simply pause for a deeper correction, similar to the 2022 recession.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $60,000 remains the most important signal traders will be looking at.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s rally is taking place without strong optimism, underscoring that the market is still recovering from February’s volatility.
- Memories of the 2022 crash influence traders’ psychology, making investors cautious even during price recoveries.