Journalist
Posted:
Bitcoin [BTC] has been consolidating above $65,000 for more than a week, after falling 46% from $126,000 to $60,000 in the past three months. However, despite the weak sentiment, overall selling pressure has eased significantly.
According to VanEck analystsLed by Mathew Siggel, head of digital asset research, those who held BTC for one to two years were the biggest sellers in late 2025 and early 2026. However, this cohort has reduced outflows as most of them (who bought at an average price of $72,000) are now underwater.
“Over the past month, sales from older cohorts, >1 year, have fallen significantly to an expected total of 517,000 BTC in February. The 1 to 2 year period has seen the most dramatic decline in token sales, to a pace of 190,000.”
Source: VanEck
Sigel concluded that Bitcoin distribution is “slowing,” but warned that investors could still suffer painful losses.
So far, realized losses have exceeded $22 billion, underscoring the increasing capitulation and lack of conviction to hold BTC any longer.
The market’s caution remains
That said, the decline has negatively impacted miners’ revenues and likely exacerbated the miners’ crisis and the exit of non-competing players. This was illustrated by the drop in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate (the computing power required to mine BTC).
According to VanEckthe network’s hash rate has fallen by 14% over the past 90 days. However, the analysts added:
“Sustained 90-day declines in hash rates are relatively unusual. These periods of hash rate contraction have historically preceded strong forward BTC returns over the subsequent 90 days.”
Source: VanEck
If this is validated, it could provide short-term relief for the market. And rising expectations of passage of the crypto market structure law, the CLARITY Act, could further help stabilize the Bitcoin price.
Still, there was heavy positioning for downside risk. According to data from Glassnode, options flows and skews leaned heavily toward downside hedging. It is striking that the put skew remained high (the demand for puts, bearish bets) and was relatively higher than the call positions (bullish bets).
Source: Glassnode
Put another way, investors didn’t want to be surprised by another decline, despite the potential recovery and improved opportunities for the CLARITY Act.
Final summary
- VanEck said Bitcoin’s top sellers (1-2 year holders) have significantly reduced their dumping spree after BTC fell below $72,000.
- The asset manager predicted that BTC could recover in the second quarter, citing historical patterns of hash rate contraction.