Mid-February 2026 Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a very unstable phase, with sharp price fluctuations and mixed signals from the market.
Although Bitcoin has recovered to around $70,318 and is up 2.23% in one day, it is still down by 26% in the past month, showing how severe the recent decline has been.
This fall has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 13, a level called “Extreme Fear” that indicates strong panic among investors.
Despite these fears, Bitcoin still dominates the crypto market. to cling almost 59% of the total market value.
Mixed Bitcoin Dynamics
At the same time, major investors are slowly returning.
After heavy outflows earlier this week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $15.1 million in new inflows on February 13. suggestive that institutions may start purchasing again.
On the technical side, Bitcoin’s network is also changing. For the first time in years, both mining problems and hashrate are declining.
Source: Glassnode
This means some miners are closing their doors as rising costs and lower prices make it difficult to remain profitable. This phase is often called miners’ capitulation.
Overall, the market is caught between fear from small investors and silent buying from big players.
While the short-term charts still show uncertainty, the major Wall Street banks are now focusing on long-term buying rather than short-term price movements.
JP Morgan’s long-term bet
Given the current market dynamics, JP Morgan has done so reduced Bitcoin’s estimated “price floor” (the cost to produce one Bitcoin) of $90,000 to $77,000.
This change occurred mainly because mining problems fell by about 15%, many expensive mining operations were shut down, and severe winter storms in the US, especially in Texas, disrupted mining operations.
But despite these challenges and adjustments, JP Morgan remains expects Bitcoin to reach $266,000 by 2026.
This confidence is based on the hope that the CLARITY Act will pass, making it easier for large institutions to invest in crypto.
This followed the bank building its own crypto systems. Through its Kinexys unit, it is expanding its digital dollar token and preparing to offer crypto custody services for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Moreover, Goldman Sachs, which once criticized Bitcoin, has now also added major digital assets to its portfolio.
What does this mean for investors?
All this is because the banks believe that new regulations will make crypto safer and more attractive to large investors.
Interestingly, the Donald Trump administration strongly supports the CLARITY Act.
Patrick Witt, who is working with the White House on digital assets, said the goal is to pass the law before the November 2026 midterm elections.
However, the bill is moving slowly in the Senate.
Whether the CLARITY Act is passed sooner or later in 2026, cryptocurrency in the US is moving away from a wild west phase towards a more regulated, bank-backed system.
Final summary
- Bitcoin is going through a major testing phase, with high volatility and strong fear among small investors.
- Declining mining difficulty and hashrate indicate miner capitulation, which often happens during major market resets.