Risk management is key in times of rising market FUD.
From a technical perspective, the crypto market has wiped out more than $1 trillion in less than a month, forcing investors to reposition themselves. And yet the absence of meaningful dip buying suggests that sentiment may be cautious.
At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty has also increased. China has reportedly ordered banks to reduce exposure to US Treasuries – a macro shift that has proven to be a key factor for Bitcoin [BTC] in this cycle.
Source: Bloomberg
China’s holdings of US government bonds have fallen to an 18-year low of $682 billion. In fact, the total in 2025 alone US Treasury in the hands of China fell by approximately 11% due to aggressive selling.
In this context, as Beijing pushes banks to reduce exposure to government bonds, the momentum behind ‘de-dollarization’ is increasing, increasing pressure on the US dollar. Especially since it is already down 1.4% after closing 2025 with a 9.4% dip.
One applies to Bitcoin weak dollar has historically supported bull cycles.
However, the 2025 cycle deviated from that pattern, raising an important question: As investors continue to manage risk amid “persistent” FUD, could this be an early sign that Bitcoin’s $70k level is a top rather than a bottom?
Cautious investors continue to test Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe haven
The difference in 2025 reflected a shift in investor positioning.
Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin ended the year down 6.3%, while the US dollar fell 9.4%. At the same time, gold (XAU) rose 65%, causing the BTC/XAU ratio to fall 44% – the weakest level since the 2022 bear market.
The result? Bitcoin fell from $30,000 to $15.5,000 that cycle. Now the difference is emerging again, with the BTC/XAU ratio closing the weekly candle below the support level of 15.50 – A level historically linked to BTC tops.
Source: TradingView (BTC/XAU)
Against this backdrop, China’s recent moves have gained significance.
Their push to reduce exposure to government bonds puts additional pressure on the US dollar, highlighting underlying stress. For investors, this translates into greater caution. On the other hand, it is a motivation for the government return on debt higher.
Bitcoin, in turn, is under pressure on its “safe haven” status, which it failed to maintain during the 2025 cycle. Furthermore, with the BTC/XAU ratio breaking a key support level, the market could be primed for a similar move.
In short, while it may be too early to call a $70,000 top for Bitcoin, the combination of macro FUD and investor positioning means it’s far from a bottom. analysts still point up to a potential decrease of 50%.
Final thoughts
- A $1 trillion market wipeout and a reduction in government bond exposure by China are putting pressure on the US dollar and testing Bitcoin’s safe-haven status.
- The BTC/XAU ratio breaking its key support indicated a repeat of the 2025 cycle.