Traders cashed out nearly $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single day last week — a sign that the recent recovery may be coming to an end.
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On May 4, investors sold 14,600 Bitcoin, pushing daily realized gains to the highest since early December.
According to CryptoQuantThis type of selling spike during a bear market rally has historically marked a local price top.
A rally under pressure
Bitcoin rose about 37% in six weeks, from $66,000 in early April to briefly $82,380. That level matches the cryptocurrency’s 200-day moving average — a technical marker that proved to be a wall during the 2022 bear market.
At the time, Bitcoin reached that same average in March before falling further into a prolonged decline. CryptoQuant’s latest research draws a direct line between that episode and the current situation.
Unrealized profits among traders also rose during the recent run-up. On May 5, profit margins reached over 17%, the highest figure since June last year.
Bitcoin traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7%, the highest level since June 2025.
The last time margins reached these levels while Bitcoin tested the 200-day MA was March 2022, just before the downtrend resumed. pic.twitter.com/Zgfe9jFTiv
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 13, 2026
Data shows that this figure reflects conditions last seen in March 2022 – just before Bitcoin resumed its fall.
The combination of profit taking and a historically significant resistance level has prompted CryptoQuant to signal the possibility of a trend reversal.
Inflation data is adding to the pressure
Outside of the crypto market, broader economic signals are contributing to the uncertainty. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the strongest increase in four years.
Bitcoin has become more sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has increased and the inflation report sent the price down 2.3% in 24 hours to around $79,250.
If selling pressure pushes Bitcoin lower, CryptoQuant expects the next major support around $70,000. That level reflects the average price at which all Bitcoin last traded and has historically shifted from resistance to support during bear markets.
At that point, short-term traders would be left with little unrealized profit, removing much of the incentive to sell.
Taureans still see a different path
Not everyone reads the graphs the same way. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could make a quick move to $90,000 if the US Senate were to promote support. CLARITY Acta long-awaited piece of crypto legislation.
This can literally go two ways.
If this continues to rise, with the upcoming CLARITY Act tomorrow, I suspect we will see a rapid move to $90,000 within a few days. #Bitcoin.
The build-up is genuinely strong. pic.twitter.com/rYkwa7lWYF
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 13, 2026
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A return to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 is seen as almost inevitable, according to Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom’s chief investment officer.
Hayes pointed to the money-printing push linked to the Iran conflict and the escalating race between the US and China in artificial intelligence as key catalysts.
Both views reflect the sharp divisions among market watchers as Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture.
Featured image of Mint, chart from TradingView