A crypto strategist who accurately predicted Bitcoin’s current downtrend says BTC may now be gearing up for a counter-trend rally.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen tells his 1.1 million followers on
“BTC has fallen just below the April 2025 low. If it doesn’t recover soon, this will be a great gap year. If it can bounce back, it will give us a few months and get us closer to October without as much bad price action (probably the low in time).
I feel like the bear story has been very strong for a while now, which is why I would expect a counter-trend rally soon so that it gives the bulls some hope for a while.
However, I learned my lesson in previous cycles, so I try not to trade them. Counter-trend rallies can happen, but sometimes they happen when you least expect them, not when everyone expects them. It is logical to assume that an earlier low would provide some relief, as that was true for BTC even during the bull market.”
However, Cowan warns that Bitcoin may first experience a deeper correction at its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $57,000, before staging a rally based on historical priority.
“But in 2014/2018/2022, when BTC fell below the 100W SMA, it went straight to the 200W SMA before any relief occurred. The time to sell BTC was late last year, and not panicking about mid-year dumps. I’m just trying to focus on the bigger picture and the bigger picture is that late Q3/early Q4 will be a better time to bring real money back into the market.
Between now and then, it’s just people trying to make money in tough times by trading support and resistance levels.”
Bitcoin is trading at $73,082 at the time of writing, down 4.1% at the time of writing.
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