As the market erases 2026 gains, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in weeks and is trying to regain a crucial level. Some market observers have warned that a retest of the November lows is likely if volatility continues.
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Bitcoin breaks away from key support
On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued to retreat, hitting a three-week low of $87,263. The cryptocurrency has traded between $90,000 and $96,000 since its breakout early this year, hitting a two-month high of $97,924 a week ago.
However, the crypto market has experienced significant volatility in recent days, fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions. As a result, BTC has recovered 10% over the past week and has fallen to the mid-zone of its $84,000-$94,000 range.
Amid these achievements, trader Wealthmanager noted that the flagship crypto had regained all its 2026 gains and briefly dropped below its annual open and POC. He added that this is a crucial level to hold in the coming days as the loss of this area could send the price back towards the $80,000 mark.
Crypto Analyst Jelle marked a two-month bear flag structure on BTC’s daily chart, indicating the likelihood of a breakdown is high. “If we lose the current lows again, the bears will be fully in control again,” he claimed.
Similarly, market observer Lyvo Crypto pointed to the same formation, detailing that Bitcoin left the rising pattern support after the recent price action and lost its two-month uptrend.
To the trader, this indicates that “momentum is completely in the bears’ control” and “if so.” [bearish momentum] holds, we could see a freefall” that could likely result in a retest of the $78,000 area.
In the event of a decline to the November lows, he advised that “from there we will wait for confirmation of a double bottom and look for a relief rally.”
BTC repeats its price action for 2020?
Crypto bullet pulled a parallel between BTC’s current price action and its performance in early 2022. The analyst confirmed that the current price action closely matches the 2022 fractal, which could indicate a major correction is coming.
At the time, Bitcoin recovered more than 40% from its cycle top at the end of 2021, followed by a dead cat bounce in early 2022 and a second major correction towards new lows.
Now the flagship crypto is showing similar performance as it has regained 30% of its October highs and is currently trying to regain lost ground. However, Crypto Bullet noted that there are two significant differences from the 2022 correction.
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First, Bitcoin has yet to retest the 50- and 200-week moving averages (MAs). Second, the timing suggests that the final collapse will not occur until later in the first quarter.
“If we match the top of the 2022 fractal and the October 2025 fractal, we will see that there is about one month of PA left to make that final push up and test the 50-week MA or the 200-day MA,” he explained.
He concluded that another pump above $100,000 is likely, but advised caution as key supports are tested.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, up 1.2% on the daily time frame.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com