Journalist
Posted:
Bitcoin is on track after the second-worst fourth-quarter performance in history. So far in Q4 2025, the crypto asset is down 22.8%, reinforcing the Christmas blues as losses above $85,000 are consolidated.
In fact, across the broader asset classes, gold was the best performer, with an annual gain of 69% Bitcoin performed the worst, with a loss of 5%.
That begs the question: what’s next for Bitcoin [BTC] to the end of the year?
A potential BTC boover after Christmas?
According to the crypto trading desk, QCP, the low liquidity during the Christmas holidays and the huge options expiry on December 26 would lead to volatility. But QCP analysts were somewhat optimistic and added,
“Downside positioning has eased as open interest on 85k Put moves lower, while 100k Calls persist, indicating preliminary optimism on the Santa Rally.”
The company also emphasized that bearish sentiment has subsided, but markets could still remain within a certain range until December 31.
However, Options analyst David projected an explosive upward movement after Christmas Day.
“Expect a chop until Christmas, followed by a potentially explosive move once the pin is released.”
Source: David/X
David highlighted that big players are locking in prices between $85,000 and $90,000 via put wall (bearish bets) and call wall (bullish bets), which translates into $300 million in gamma exposure.
However, after the Boxing Day expiration, BTC could potentially break out of its range.
A similar positioning was painted through liquidation heatmaps. The upside liquidity pools (short positions) were concentrated at $90,000 and $95,000, while the downside positions were at $84,000.
This suggested potential wild swings that could mark these levels.
Source: CoinAnk
Demand for BTC has evaporated
That said, CryptoQuant warned that BTC demand has shrunk and could herald a deeper capitulation from the bear market. Part of the analysis company’s report read,
“Demand growth has entered a period of slowdown since early October and is now growing below trend. As such, we believe that most of the demand growth in this cycle is over, with the associated bearish impact on price.”
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant added that BTC’s bear market could reach a low of $56,000, with immediate support at $70,000, citing historical data.
Final thoughts
- BTC could expect a bullish breakout from its $85K-$90K price range after Boxing Day.
- However, in the medium term, aggregate demand has shrunk and could turn into a bear market.