Some renowned analysts, such as Peter Brandt, believe that Bitcoin’s price decline is not over yet.
According to Brandt, the crypto asset could fall further to $25,000, quote a break under the parabolic structure that led to an 80% crash in the past.
“BTC’s bull cycles have undergone parabolic advances. The violation of previous parabolas have all declined <80%. The current parabolic advance has been violated.”
Source: X/Peter Brandt
From the end of December 2025, one of the main catalysts that could lead to a massive sell-off could be the exclusion of Bitcoin. [BTC] government bonds, such as Strategy, from the MSCI index or unwinding the carry trade in the Yen.
In other words, BTC’s next price could be determined by January 15 after the revision of the MSCI index. Still, some analysts expect bullish momentum by year’s end and a record high in 2026.
Grayscale’s Bullish BTC Outlook
But bulls, including institutions like Grayscale, expect a new all-time high above $126,000 in 2026.
Unlike Brandt, the digital asset manager noted that there was no “parabolic” move in the 2022-2025 cycle, citing increased institutional adoption.
Source: grayscale
For Grasycale, BTC has bottomed out, citing options positioning and BTC treasury companies’ mNAVs (enterprise value to crypto holdings) trading at a discount. The company added:
“While the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove wrong and Bitcoin’s price may reach new highs next year.”
At the same time Standard Chartered cut to halve the target by the end of 2025, from $200,000 to $100,000.
This underscored a lack of consensus among analysts, further highlighting uncertainty in the short to medium term, said Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant. Young Ju added,
“Many people ask ‘what now’, but in neutral and uncertain situations like this, I believe the right approach is to hold your own convictions, hold your existing position and wait.”
Source:
The LTH sell-off is increasing
In fact, the demand dynamics are not strong enough either. Last week, for example, ETFs saw net inflows of $287 million.
While this was positive, long-term holders (LTHs) intensified their sell-off, which reached a daily average of 279,000 BTC (worth over $25 billion).
Source: Glassnode
That said, the $87,000 and $95,000/96,000 areas were key short-term interest levels with significant liquidity build-up that could attract price action.
Source: CoinAnk
Final thoughts
- Brandt predicted a potential long-term price crash to $25,000, citing previous breaks in parabolic structures.
- However, Grayscale believes that institutional adoption, which is under threat, could drive BTC to a new ATH in 2026.